Alberta voters are set to take part in the province’s first independence referendum, with polling suggesting a decisive rejection of separation from Canada but supporters insisting the campaign will continue whatever the result.
The ballot asks residents whether Alberta should remain part of Canada or begin the legal process for holding a future referendum on independence. A vote for the second option would not make the oil-rich province an independent country.
Any attempt to secede would require lengthy negotiations with the federal government in Ottawa, other provinces and Indigenous peoples living in and around Alberta.
That distinction has been central to the campaign. Some separatists have urged voters to back the proposal not because they want Alberta to leave Canada immediately, but because they want to send a warning to Ottawa.
Jared Wesley, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, said supporters had used the lower threshold to attract voters who did not necessarily favour independence.
Research by Viewpoint Alberta, a University of Alberta-based initiative, suggests that about two-thirds of those supporting the referendum are doing so for strategic reasons, rather than because they are committed to separation.
Cory Morgan, founder of the advocacy group Pathway to Independence, describes such voters as “reluctant separatists” who feel they have reached the end of their patience and want the federal government to listen.
But Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned against treating the vote as a political message. Speaking at a pro-Canada rally in Calgary, he said: “Don’t be fooled by the idea you can ‘send a message’ with your vote. This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty.”
Why Alberta’s independence campaign has gained ground
Polls indicate that roughly four in five Albertans want the province to remain part of Canada. Separatists are therefore expected to lose the vote, but their campaign has brought a once-fringe idea into mainstream provincial politics.
Support for independence has been fuelled by long-standing complaints that Alberta contributes too much money to Ottawa while receiving too little in return. Separatists also object to federal energy policies they believe have restricted the potential of the province’s oil industry.
Morgan traces the resentment to the 1980s and Pierre Trudeau’s National Energy Program, which used price controls, taxes and ownership rules to keep Canadian energy affordable while directing more of Alberta’s revenues to the federal government.
The programme remains a powerful symbol of what is known in Canada as “Western alienation” – a sense of political disenfranchisement in the country’s western provinces.
Those tensions intensified under Justin Trudeau, whose climate policies included a national carbon tax and limits on emissions. Demonstrations against Covid restrictions later mobilised a new generation of conservative activists, giving the separatist cause fresh energy.
Pressure from separatist groups also contributed to changes made last year by the government of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, which made it easier to initiate referendums and helped put independence on the political agenda.
Wesley said the vote reflected pressure within Smith’s governing United Conservative Party, where support for separation is higher than among Albertans as a whole.
“We’re having a referendum because Danielle Smith wants us to have a referendum,” he said. “She is looking to solve internal party matters by throwing a question to the broader public.”
Smith has said she opposes independence, despite calling the referendum. On October 14, she announced that she had voted against secession.
“In my view, now is not the time to give up hope in our country, not when we have fought so long and come so far,” she said in a social media video.
Could defeat prolong Alberta’s separatist movement?
The central question after the vote may be whether a heavy defeat weakens the independence campaign or gives it a longer-term cause around which to organise.
Ian Cooper, a political scientist who grew up in Alberta and now lives in Ireland, said the 1975 referendum on Britain’s membership of what was then the European Economic Community could prove a more useful comparison than the Brexit vote.
Although voters overwhelmingly chose to remain in 1975, opponents of European integration continued their campaign for decades. Cooper said the activists who later became associated with Brexit “really played the long game” and eventually achieved their objective.
He believes Alberta’s separatists could take a similar approach if independence is rejected, building support gradually and seeking greater political prominence.
“My impression is that they really are true believers, and it’s really ideologically driven,” he said.
Morgan said a defeat would require separatists to examine why they had failed and develop a stronger case for independence. He does not believe Alberta’s grievances can be resolved simply by working within Canada or electing a more sympathetic federal government.
“I would respect the will of the voters,” he said. “If they’ve decided it’s not time to go that route yet, then so be it. But that doesn’t mean I’ll stop.”
“That’s not a movement that’s leaving,” he added.
Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has acknowledged that many of the province’s frustrations are genuine. He said Ottawa had made Albertans feel “like our resources weren’t our own”.
Amid an ongoing trade war with the United States, his government has sought to improve relations with Alberta through commitments including a new pipeline to Canada’s west coast and major infrastructure projects.
Morgan accepts that the separatist campaign has secured greater attention from Ottawa. “We’ve seen more love from a federal prime minister in the last year than we’ve seen in the last 10,” he said.
But he added: “The problem though, when it comes to stubborn independence folks like me, is nothing has changed in the system.”
“Prime ministers come and go,” Morgan said. “We’re just one election away from another hostile one.”
Other ballot questions could shape the next campaign
The independence proposal is one of 10 questions on the ballot. The others include restricting temporary residents’ access to healthcare and education, and allowing Alberta to choose its own judges.
Smith has urged voters to support the other nine proposals, arguing that a strong result would give her government greater negotiating power in Ottawa.
“Many Albertans I speak with tell me they want to send Ottawa a message, and I would suggest the best way to do that is to give us a strong mandate on the other nine questions,” she said.
Cooper said that if Albertans backed those measures but Ottawa refused to make concessions, separatists could use the outcome as evidence that meaningful change was impossible within Canada.
“Buried in the nine other questions are the seeds for a future referendum,” he said.
There is no agreement, however, on whether the movement can remain united after the vote. Wesley said its supporters had been drawn by different concerns and might move on to other conservative issues, including immigration, if independence appeared unrealistic.
Other experts question whether Alberta’s movement can endure like Quebec’s, because it is based more on economic grievances than a shared cultural identity.
Morgan argues that Alberta has developed a distinct culture shaped by generations of people who moved there seeking prosperity. He says the province’s individualistic outlook could sustain the separatist cause even without the linguistic difference that has helped define Quebec’s movement.
Whatever the result, he believes the campaign has forced Ottawa to take Alberta’s discontent more seriously.
“Hopefully some people understand that eventually something has to give,” Morgan said. “So whatever the results are … I do hope, at the very least, they’ve served as a wake-up call to a lot of people.”
