European intelligence chiefs have warned that a Russian escalation against NATO could come within months, potentially involving missile or drone strikes, sabotage, false-flag operations or a limited incursion into alliance territory.
The assessments reflect growing concern that Moscow may seek to test the alliance’s resolve while undermining European support for Ukraine. One senior security official said the danger could emerge in “months, not years”.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told lawmakers that intelligence suggested Russia could launch drones or missiles at NATO territory in the coming months, possibly to show that the alliance’s Article 5 mutual-defence guarantee was “more theoretical than practical”.
French President Emmanuel Macron described the warning as “sound and well-documented”. He later summoned political party leaders and candidates for France’s 2027 presidential election to an emergency meeting in Paris, where the threat from Russia was among the issues discussed.
One of the starkest assessments came from Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service. He said Moscow’s next move could go beyond the drone activity that has unsettled European capitals and involve a small-scale incursion into NATO territory bordering Russia.
“It’s possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,” Mr Koudelka said in an interview at the agency’s headquarters in Prague.
Asked when such a scenario might unfold, he replied: “Months, not years,” while stressing that “a lot of people are doing everything they can to make sure this doesn’t happen”.
European officials differ over the threat from Russia
The warnings come as Russia and Ukraine intensify long-range attacks. Ukraine launched hundreds of drones at Moscow and other Russian regions early on Sunday in one of the largest aerial assaults of the war, while Ukrainian forces have repeatedly struck Russian oil infrastructure and refineries.
Moscow has repeatedly claimed that Western countries supplying Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and military assistance have made themselves participants in the conflict.
However, European intelligence services are not united in believing that a direct Russian attack on NATO is imminent. Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia’s VDD state security service, said: “We don’t see indications of an imminent attack.”
Mr Mežviets said there were signs that Moscow was preparing for more decisive action in Europe, but questioned whether this pointed to a military assault or an attempt to destabilise Western societies.
“It’s still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it’s just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society,” he said.
He added that Russian activity appeared to be targeting railway infrastructure and facilities supporting Ukraine, with a growing focus on defence industry targets.
Estonia has also urged caution. Jonatan Vseviov, the country’s foreign ministry secretary general, warned against “panic on social media” over claims that an attack could be imminent.
“If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine,” he wrote.
The Baltic states have spent years warning other European governments about the Kremlin, but their current message reflects uncertainty over whether Russia’s preparations are intended to precede a military operation or to spread fear.
“Before 2022, we constantly warned our Western European partners about the threat from Russia, but most of the time our voices were not listened to,” Mr Mežviets said. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he added, “They said it turns out the Balts and the Poles had been right.”
Kremlin denies plans to attack NATO
The Kremlin has rejected the suggestion that Russia intends to attack the alliance. After CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s surprise trip to Moscow last month, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said speculation about an assault on NATO had “nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation”.
European officials remain particularly concerned about what they describe as an expanding sabotage campaign attributed to Moscow, including covert operations, arson and drone activity against targets across the continent.
Mr Koudelka described the strategy as “escalate to de-escalate”, arguing that Russia could seek to put enough pressure on European countries to make them reconsider their backing for Kyiv.
“They believe if they escalate enough, then European countries will decide not to support Ukraine,” he said.
