Melbourne could record its first 30°C day of the season within days as a cold snap gives way to a prolonged spell of dry, sunny and increasingly warm weather.
Temperatures are forecast to reach 21°C on Thursday and 23°C on Friday before rising by a degree or two each day. The warm conditions could continue through to the middle of next week.
The change follows a sharp outbreak of cold air from the Southern Ocean, which brought low-level snow to parts of Tasmania, including the ranges and Mount Wellington.
A week of temperatures well above Melbourne’s October average of 20°C would mark a significant shift in conditions.
Melbourne’s warm spell comes as weather patterns diverge
The factors shaping the weather over the coming months remain mixed. El Niño in the Pacific is reducing moisture, while the Tasman Sea is warmer than average and carrying substantial moisture.
The Tasman Sea helped bring heavy rainfall to Gippsland last week. The Indian Ocean is also carrying significant moisture and has contributed to several episodes of flooding in Victorian rivers this year.
That combination means different weather systems are pulling conditions in opposite directions, making the longer-term outlook less straightforward.
Recent rain has encouraged vegetation growth across parts of Victoria. While that has changed conditions in some areas that missed winter rainfall, how quickly the landscape dries will depend on the length and frequency of dry spells before summer.
The dry stretch forecast for next week could begin drying out the new growth. A windy day could then bring renewed bushfire concerns, particularly in areas that were already more vulnerable after a drier winter.
The forecast warm spell is expected to bring sunshine and significantly higher temperatures to Melbourne, but it also signals the seasonal shift towards conditions that will require close monitoring.
