OPEC+ is set to hold its oil output policy steady for October when key members meet on Sunday, as the producer alliance turns its attention to new production quotas, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The expected pause comes as the war with Iran continues to disrupt exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the influence that changes to OPEC+ supply targets can have on crude prices and the group’s market share.
The 21-member alliance agreed in August to increase production in September, completing the phased unwinding of a 1.65 million-barrel-a-day cut first introduced in 2023. However, actual output remains well below official targets amid the conflict and wider disruption to regional oil flows.
That shortfall means previous increases have had a more limited effect on physical supplies than headline quotas might suggest. OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts covering most members until the end of 2026.
Before deciding how quickly those remaining restrictions should be lifted, the group must review members’ production capacity and establish new baselines for 2027. Those figures will form the basis for individual quotas allocated to producers.
Discussions on the new baselines are expected later this year, making a pause in further output increases during the fourth quarter increasingly likely, the sources said.
The meeting takes place as shipping constraints caused by the conflict are playing a greater role in determining how much crude reaches global markets. That has weakened OPEC+’s traditional ability to manage supply and influence prices through coordinated production changes.
