The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains too close to call as early voting gets under way, with recent polls showing only a narrow gap between the two candidates.
Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is seeking the seat held by Republican Senator John Cornyn, while Talarico is a Democratic state representative. The contest has emerged as one of the most closely watched races of the 2026 US midterm elections.
The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey put Talarico on 50% and Paxton on 47% among likely voters. The poll, conducted between September 25 and October 5, had a margin of error of 3.34 percentage points, meaning the Democrat’s lead falls within the survey’s statistical uncertainty. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/latest-ut-texas-politics-poll-finds-historic-levels-of-competition-in-texas-midterm-elections))
A separate CBS/YouGov poll conducted from October 8 to 16 showed Talarico ahead by two points, on 51% compared with 49% for Paxton. Other recent surveys have also recorded small leads for Talarico, although the overall picture remains one of a highly competitive race. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tracker))
Texas Senate race enters final voting period
Polling figures should not be read as a single trend line. Surveys use different voter samples, question wording and candidate choices, while some include Libertarian candidate Ted Brown and others ask voters to choose only between Paxton and Talarico.
The spacing between poll results also does not represent the passage of time between surveys, and apparent movements in support may reflect differences in methodology rather than a genuine shift in voter opinion.
The latest Texas Politics Project findings suggest that economic concerns are central to the contest. More than a third of respondents identified the cost of living or the economy as the most important issue affecting their vote, while corruption, immigration and opposition to Donald Trump were also cited.
Voters said they trusted Talarico more on issues including healthcare, the cost of living, political corruption, voting and elections, and data centres. Paxton held an advantage on immigration and border security, public safety, national security and taxes, according to the survey. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/latest-ut-texas-politics-poll-finds-historic-levels-of-competition-in-texas-midterm-elections))
Early voting in Texas began on Monday, October 19, and will continue until Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s official calendar. ([sos.texas.gov](https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/candidates/guide/2026/dates2026.shtml))
With the candidates separated by only a few percentage points in most recent polling, turnout and the ability of both campaigns to mobilise supporters could prove decisive in determining who succeeds Cornyn in the US Senate.
