The Texas Senate race remains effectively level, with Democrat James Talarico holding a one-point advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in the latest poll of likely voters.
The Emerson College Polling survey, conducted from 12 to 14 September among 1,000 likely voters, put Mr Talarico on 47 per cent and Mr Paxton on 46 per cent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 2 per cent, while 4 per cent were undecided.
With a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, the result amounts to a statistical tie in the contest to succeed Republican Senator John Cornyn.
Texas Senate race remains tightly contested
The latest figures follow a series of surveys showing a narrow and shifting contest. An August Emerson poll gave Mr Paxton a one-point lead, while recent surveys by AARP Texas and Univision placed Mr Talarico four and five points ahead respectively.
An AARP poll released earlier in September found Mr Talarico leading Mr Paxton by 48 per cent to 44 per cent among all likely voters. However, Mr Paxton held a significant advantage among voters aged 50 and over, leading by 53 per cent to 40 per cent.
The age divide could prove important because older voters reported higher levels of motivation to vote. Eighty-four per cent of those aged 50 and over described themselves as extremely motivated, compared with 70 per cent of voters under 50.
Mr Talarico, a Democratic state representative, has a favourable rating of 48 per cent and an unfavourable rating of 42 per cent in the Emerson survey. Mr Paxton, the Republican Texas attorney general, was viewed favourably by 40 per cent and unfavourably by 48 per cent.
The economy was identified as the leading issue for Texas voters, with 36 per cent naming it as their top concern. Immigration, education, healthcare and threats to democracy followed.
The polls are not directly interchangeable. They use different samples, methodologies, question wording and candidate options, while some include Mr Brown and others ask voters to choose only between Mr Paxton and Mr Talarico. Individual results should therefore not be read as a continuous measure of movement in support.
Early voting in Texas begins on 19 October, with Election Day due to take place on 3 November. Polling locations will vary by county.
