The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico remains finely balanced, with the latest polling placing the candidates within a single percentage point of one another less than six weeks before voting begins.
A Texas Politics Project tracker updated on Tuesday, September 22, listed Talarico on 47 per cent and Paxton on 46 per cent in a TSU/YouGov survey of 1,800 likely voters conducted from September 15 to 19. The poll had a margin of error of 2.31 percentage points, leaving the contest statistically level. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tracker))
Another survey, by Emerson College and Nexstar, produced the same result, while polls by Recon MR and NBC News/Mason-Dixon showed Talarico ahead by six and three points respectively. The range of findings underlines how little separates the two candidates, rather than establishing a decisive lead for either campaign. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tracker))
The election is for the seat currently held by Republican senator John Cornyn. Paxton, Texas’s attorney general, secured the Republican nomination after defeating Mr Cornyn in a May runoff, while Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area, won the Democratic nomination.
Earlier polling by the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project also showed Talarico in front, with 42 per cent backing him compared with 39 per cent for Paxton. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3 per cent, while 14 per cent of registered voters were undecided or declined to choose a candidate. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/new-ut-texas-politics-project-poll-finds-talarico-leading-paxton-abbott-leading-hinojosa-continued-resistance-to-data-centers-2))
However, the surveys are not directly interchangeable. Some include Mr Brown as an option and others offer only the two leading candidates, while differences in sample composition, question wording and methodology can affect the result. Apparent movement between individual polls should therefore not be treated as a continuous measure of changing voter support.
The contest has attracted national attention because Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Polling analysed by the Texas Tribune has shown Talarico leading in more surveys than Paxton, although Republican strategists have argued that the state’s established voting patterns could still give Mr Paxton an advantage on election day. ([texastribune.org](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/17/democrats-texas-james-talarico-november-midterms/))
Paxton’s campaign has begun a major advertising push focused on the cost of living, with reported spending of about $300,000 a week on broadcast, streaming and digital adverts in three South Texas markets. The campaign has promoted his economic proposals while attacking Talarico over his opposition to the Republican-backed One Big Beautiful Bill Act. ([texastribune.org](https://www.texastribune.org/2026/09/15/texas-ken-paxton-first-ads-james-talarico/))
When is voting in the Texas Senate race?
Early voting in person is due to begin on October 19 and end on October 30. Election Day is November 3, with polling locations determined by individual counties. ([sos.state.tx.us](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/candidates/guide/2026/dates2026.shtml))
