James Talarico has taken a narrow lead over Ken Paxton in the latest Texas Senate poll, underlining the increasingly competitive contest for the seat held by Republican John Cornyn.
The Texas Southern University survey puts Democratic state Representative Talarico on 47 per cent, one point ahead of Republican Texas Attorney General Paxton on 46 per cent. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 3 per cent, while 4 per cent remained undecided. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-texas-us-senate-tsu-poll))
The poll questioned 1,800 likely voters between 15 and 19 September and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percentage points. With the difference between the two leading candidates smaller than that margin, the result does not establish a clear advantage for either contender. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-texas-us-senate-tsu-poll))
Texas Senate race remains finely balanced
The latest findings follow an Emerson College poll published on 17 September, which also showed Talarico ahead by a single point, at 47 per cent to Paxton’s 46 per cent. That survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted between 12 and 14 September, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-us-senate-poll-sept-17))
Earlier public surveys have produced similarly close results. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released in August recorded Talarico on 42 per cent and Paxton on 39 per cent, with 14 per cent expressing no preference and 3 per cent backing Mr Brown. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/new-ut-texas-politics-project-poll-finds-talarico-leading-paxton-abbott-leading-hinojosa-continued-resistance-to-data-centers-2?utm_source=openai))
Polling figures should be compared cautiously because surveys differ in their samples, methods, wording and the candidates offered as response options. Some include Mr Brown while others ask voters to choose only between Talarico and Paxton, meaning the percentages are not always directly comparable.
The newest survey also points to some weakness in party loyalty. While 99 per cent of Democrats surveyed said they intended to vote for Talarico, 84 per cent of Republicans backed Paxton; 7 per cent of Republicans said they would support Talarico, 4 per cent chose Mr Brown and 5 per cent were undecided. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-texas-us-senate-tsu-poll))
Both major candidates recorded net negative favourability ratings. Talarico was viewed favourably by 47 per cent and unfavourably by 50 per cent, while Paxton was viewed favourably by 43 per cent and unfavourably by 55 per cent. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/election/james-talarico-ken-paxton-texas-us-senate-tsu-poll))
Early voting in Texas is due to begin on 19 October, ahead of Election Day on 3 November. Polling locations vary by county.
