Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have moved ahead of Reform UK in an Ipsos poll, putting the party back in front as the public’s preferred main opposition to Andy Burnham and Labour.
The survey found the Tories leading Nigel Farage’s party by three points, at 35 per cent to 32 per cent. It marks the first time during this Parliament that the Conservatives have held an advantage over Reform, after Reform enjoyed a 28-point lead in May.
Keiran Pedley, Ipsos director of politics, said the latest figures suggested that “the tectonic plates are shifting on the Right of British politics”.
The change follows Mrs Badenoch’s party conference, where she set out proposals including scrapping inheritance tax on the family home, creating 50,000 prison places and encouraging more young people into work while reducing the benefits bill.
The polling indicates that the shift is reaching beyond Conservative supporters. Voters who backed Labour at the 2024 general election previously placed Reform 24 points ahead as the main opposition; they now put the Conservatives 13 points in front.
Mr Pedley said: “We’re seeing consistently over time people increasingly saying it is clear what Kemi stands for, with her ratings improving over time. At the same time, Reform are obviously struggling.”
He added: “There’s a sense of a battle for hearts and minds on the Right of British politics, which it very much looked like Reform had won [by May].
“What’s changed since the local elections? Reform has had scandal after scandal whereas Kemi has looked like a steady pair of hands, and people know what she stands for.”
Lord Hayward, a Conservative peer and polling expert, said the findings could prove highly significant for the party, while cautioning that the Conservatives should wait another four to six weeks to establish whether the figures represented more than a post-conference bounce.
He said being seen as the principal opposition was particularly important in a multi-party political system, where parties were competing to finish first or second. He attributed Reform’s decline partly to a fall in the prominence of immigration as an issue and a drop in Mr Farage’s popularity, particularly among middle-class voters.
The survey also found that 32 per cent believed Mrs Badenoch could become prime minister, up from 24 per cent a year ago. The proportion who thought Mr Farage was likely to enter No 10 fell from 50 per cent in May to 33 per cent.
The Conservatives have now been placed second ahead of Reform in three other polls this week. Reform has faced questions over donations, candidate vetting and allegations arising from an undercover investigation in which several councillors and candidates were reported to have expressed racist views and used offensive language.
Mr Farage is also under investigation by Parliament’s sleaze watchdog over an undeclared £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. A decision is expected imminently.
One Reform insider said senior figures believed the party could fall to 15 per cent in the polls as soon as next month if its current trajectory continued.
Speaking in Scotland, Mrs Badenoch said the latest allegations were “yet another example of how Reform has a behavioural problem across the entire organisation”.
She said: “I always say that fish rots from the head, and Nigel Farage, Robert Jenrick and Richard Tice are all under investigation, so it’s no surprise the rest of the party is behaving badly.
“Reform voters are being let down by Reform politicians.”
