About 11 million Americans may need to leave shrinking occupations and move into entirely different lines of work over the next decade, as the country’s jobs market changes despite overall employment growth.
Research estimates that roughly 770,000 workers a year will have to cross occupational boundaries by 2035 — 3.6 times the historical rate. The shift is expected to last at least a decade, rather than the one or two years seen after the Covid-19 pandemic.
The biggest obstacle for many workers may not be whether they have useful experience, but whether they can afford the training, qualifications and time away from paid employment needed to demonstrate it.
Credentials create barriers to growing jobs
Office and administrative support is expected to suffer the largest job losses, with automation potentially taking on 80% of the hours currently worked in the group.
An administrative assistant could, in principle, move into project management, where salaries are higher and demand is growing. Skills such as planning, scheduling, coordinating operations, recording decisions and managing stakeholders already account for about 58% of a project manager’s work.
However, the transition may require training in project scheduling, process improvement, forecasting, quality management and business development. Many vacancies also demand a bachelor’s degree and professional certification, meaning the worker could face thousands of dollars in costs and several years of study before making the move.
Qualifications are required in 85% of growing jobs, according to the research. About 38% are required by law, particularly in roles involving safety and public trust, while a further 47% reflect employers’ preferences for degrees, certificates or particular job titles.
That leaves almost half of the credential barrier rooted in hiring practices rather than legal requirements, the research says.
Other occupational moves present different challenges. A dishwasher moving into home healthcare would have only about 20% of the necessary skills, including patient assistance and vital-sign assessment. The role requires at least a month of instruction for certification, while many employers prefer a longer nursing assistant qualification.
Healthcare support work may also offer limited financial improvement, with 92% of jobs in the bottom two wage quintiles.
A packager moving into production fabrication would carry over about 52% of their skills, including lifting, quality control and forklift operation. The role offers a meaningful pay increase and does not require a formal credential, but workers would still need to learn mechanical assembly, drilling, fine motor techniques, equipment operation and more advanced quality-control procedures.
Employers urged to open routes into new roles
The cost of retraining is not limited to course fees. Workers with modest savings or caring responsibilities may be unable to accept months without wages, even when a new career would produce higher earnings over time.
Employers have a direct interest in reducing those barriers, particularly when they are cutting administrative roles in one part of a business while recruiting project co-ordinators elsewhere. The research suggests companies could make greater use of skills-based hiring, practical assessments and apprenticeships for existing employees.
States could reduce unnecessary occupational licensing rules and make qualifications modular, allowing shorter awards to build towards longer credentials. Colleges and training agencies could also design courses around the requirements of expanding occupations and publish information about graduates’ earnings.
Governments could support the transition through subsidised education, tax incentives for people retraining and relief for companies that help workers gain new skills and qualifications.
More than 70% of workers are expected to need new skills even if they remain with the same employer. Since 2022, job adverts seeking adaptability have increased fivefold, while those requiring resilience, curiosity and a willingness to learn have tripled.
The research concludes that millions of workers already possess a substantial proportion of the abilities needed for growing occupations. Whether they can acquire the remainder will depend largely on employers and institutions changing how training, credentials and access to work are organised.
