Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic relations as fighting intensifies in northern Ethiopia, raising fears that a conflict involving Tigrayan forces could draw in neighbouring countries and widen across the Horn of Africa.
Eritrea announced the break on Thursday after Ethiopia said it would close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. Eritrea’s foreign ministry said it had been left with “no option but to reciprocate in kind and sever all diplomatic ties with Ethiopia”.
The diplomatic rupture follows months of deteriorating relations, centred on Ethiopia’s efforts to secure access to the Red Sea and allegations that Eritrea is supporting armed groups opposed to the Ethiopian government.
Eritrea accused Addis Ababa of pursuing a long-running “agenda of incessant hostility”, including infringing on Eritrean coastal areas and arming forces against its government. Ethiopia has made similar accusations against Eritrea, but both countries deny the allegations made against them.
Fighting intensifies in northern Ethiopia
Clashes between Tigrayan-led rebel forces and Ethiopian government-backed troops have spread across Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions. The fighting is the most serious Ethiopia has seen since the civil war that lasted from 2020 to 2022 and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Forces loyal to the federal government have reportedly captured several towns in Tigray and advanced towards the regional capital, Mekelle. In Afar, a pro-government armed group said it had retaken Erebti after rebel forces seized the town earlier in the week.
The group credited the Ethiopian military with providing “magnificent air support” and said it intended to continue its advance. Rebel forces are nevertheless reported to retain a strong rear link with Eritrea along the countries’ border.
There are growing concerns that the fighting could reach major Tigrayan urban centres, including Adwa, Axum, Shire and Mekelle. Some residents have already begun fleeing towards Amhara and Afar.
The conflict also appeared to reach Addis Ababa on Thursday, when an explosion was reported at the Ministry of Defence. A diplomatic source said small drones were the most likely cause, while conflict monitors have previously reported that rebel forces used drones against airbases and airports elsewhere in Ethiopia.
Egypt and Sudan drawn into the dispute
Ethiopia has accused Egypt and Sudan of joining Eritrea in supporting Tigrayan rebel forces, further damaging relations with both countries.
Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a long-running dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Cairo regards the project as a threat to its water security and its share of the Nile.
The tensions have already led to the expulsion of diplomats. Egypt ordered an Ethiopian diplomat to leave on Thursday, after Ethiopia had earlier expelled an Egyptian diplomat. Egypt described the move by Addis Ababa as “regrettable and unjustified” and said it had responded according to the principle of reciprocity.
The fighting also has implications for Sudan, whose military-backed government accuses Ethiopia of supporting rebel forces involved in Sudan’s civil conflict. Ethiopia rejects that allegation.
Ahmed Soliman, a senior research fellow in the Africa programme at Chatham House, said the conflicts in Ethiopia and Sudan had become increasingly connected, with both the Ethiopian government and the Sudanese Armed Forces accusing one another of sheltering and supplying opposition groups across their borders.
“Egypt has also been drawn into the escalation with its long-running enmity with Ethiopia over the Nile,” he said.
Long history of Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions
The latest breakdown has reopened a longstanding dispute between the neighbouring states. Ethiopia annexed Eritrea in 1962, before an armed independence struggle led by Eritrea’s current president, Isaias Afwerki, secured independence in 1993.
The two countries fought a border war from 1998 to 2000. Relations improved after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 and sought to normalise ties with Asmara.
Eritrea later supported Ethiopia’s government during the 2020-2022 civil war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, or TPLF. The TPLF now leads the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, the rebel alliance fighting for control of parts of northern Ethiopia.
Analysts say Mr Abiy’s push for direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia has contributed to the recent deterioration. His repeated claims that Ethiopia has a right to access the sea have been viewed by officials in Asmara as a territorial challenge.
Fears of a wider regional conflict
Analysts have warned that the crisis could extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders, with Eritrea potentially becoming more directly involved in the fighting and tensions with Sudan worsening.
Laura Hammond, a professor of development studies at SOAS University of London, said the risk of regional spillover was already evident through Eritrea’s alleged support for the TPLF and its alliance.
“There is a strong possibility that Eritrea will become more involved in the conflict on the ground inside Tigray if it continues much longer,” she said. “There is also a risk that the conflict could inflame relations with and inside Sudan.”
Martin Plaut, an analyst specialising in the Horn of Africa, said there was a “real danger” of the conflict spreading.
“The situation is extremely tense and it would only require a spark to ignite a conflagration that could engulf [Ethiopia and Eritrea], as well as neighbouring Sudan,” he said.
