Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have intensified as Iran targets more tankers and shipping containers, but the United States has so far held back from a significant military response ahead of the 3 November midterm elections.
The latest escalation included a missile strike on part of the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the state oil company. It followed several days of attacks, mainly over the weekend, on the crowded Riyadh airport that killed at least 20 people, including a US citizen, and injured hundreds.
The Houthis have pledged to continue targeting energy facilities and airports. Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk at Rapidan Energy Group, said the group’s ability to hit critical Saudi infrastructure with such success was unprecedented.
“The measured [US] response reflects the fact that there are not a lot of good options to respond here,” Mr Ferreira said. “We can escalate against the Houthis and impose a lot of pain, but that won’t necessarily change the Houthi calculus or significantly degrade their capabilities. The Houthis have developed capabilities that are well underground, they’re protected.”
President Donald Trump has accused the Houthis of “behaving very badly” and said the US would “move very quickly”, but little military action has followed. On Tuesday, he wrote on social media: “I’ll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget!”
The confrontation is also affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic rose to its highest level since February last month, but has slowed this week as Iran has renewed attacks on commercial vessels.
The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that September oil volumes leaving the Middle East had reached about 75 per cent of pre-war levels. The increase has been supported partly by greater US investment in military escorts through the strait.
Mr Ferreira said the US had previously promised “tanker-for-a-tanker” retaliation, attacking an Iranian vessel for each ship struck by Iran, with the American response often exceeding the original attack.
“We haven’t really responded to the latest wave of Iranian attacks,” he said. “We’ve seen at least 20-plus attacks over the course of the past two weeks.”
Uncertainty over a wider escalation
Analysts said the central question was whether the Trump administration would wait until after the election before responding more forcefully, or whether further attacks would compel it to act sooner.
Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, said the US could focus on Iran while avoiding direct involvement in the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. He questioned whether the current pause represented a “calm before the storm” or an attempt to avoid acknowledging a worsening crisis.
“We’re staring at the midterms and there is no response,” Mr Pickering said. “It’s an unpopular conflict. If you’re ramping [the war] back up, that’s scary. If you just choose words, that looks weak. So, it feels like the US has chosen to ignore the problem rather than address it.”
He said a direct campaign against the Houthis would require substantial political and military resources, beyond supporting Saudi Arabia behind the scenes. The group’s increasingly advanced drone warfare and years of preparation have made it difficult for Saudi forces to intercept every strike, he added, while Saudi retaliation has been followed by further Houthi attacks.
“Iran will not accept the status quo as we have now where we’re moving millions of barrels a day through Hormuz,” Mr Ferreira said. “They will not just simply stand by and allow that to happen. We’re seeing that playing out now, and they’re forcing a confrontation.”
Oil remains above 100 dollars a barrel, while petrol and diesel prices are at or near seasonal records. Mr Trump has also brokered a deal with Russia for a limited amount of diesel exports in exchange for reduced Russian sanctions, although experts cited in the analysis said it would have little effect on prices.
With the war now in its eighth month, US oil producers are beginning to prepare for elevated prices well into 2027 and possibly 2028. Mr Pickering said that could encourage increased spending and drilling, with US output potentially reaching new records next year, while keeping fuel prices higher for longer.
“The producers haven’t had a price signal to react to, but they’re starting to get one,” he said.
