More than 2,500 prisoners, including violent offenders and domestic abusers, are due to be released before Christmas under the Government’s revised early release scheme.
A Ministry of Justice timetable shows that about 1,350 inmates are expected to leave prison over two days in October, followed by a further 650 in November and 550 in December.
The prisoners will be eligible for release after serving as little as one third of their sentence where the previous release point was 40 per cent, or half where they would previously have served two thirds in custody.
The figures mean that more than half of the estimated 4,500 prisoners covered by the scheme will be released before Christmas. The releases form part of a ten-stage process running from October 2026 to June 2027.
The programme was initially expected to begin on September 2, with about 6,000 prisoners affected. It was paused after Prime Minister Andy Burnham ordered a review of the plans amid concern over the release of offenders convicted of serious crimes.
Following that review, about 1,400 prisoners were removed from the scheme, including those convicted of rape, serious child sexual offences, grooming-related crimes, manslaughter and death by dangerous driving. More than 18,000 prisoners serving indeterminate or extended sentences will also remain outside the new arrangements.
However, the changes will still cover some prisoners convicted of violent offences and domestic abuse-related crimes, depending on the offence and sentence imposed.
Nick Timothy, the shadow justice secretary, warned that bringing forward the releases would place additional pressure on the probation service.
“Before these changes, each tranche was set to be released a month apart. Now the first two will be released within two weeks of each other,” he said. He accused the Government’s scheme of putting public safety at risk.
Victims’ Commissioner Claire Waxman said she remained concerned about how offenders would be managed in the community and whether victims would be adequately protected.
The Ministry of Justice said eligible victims who had joined the Probation Service’s Victim Contact Scheme were being informed about the changes. As of July 1, 8,203 victims had been contacted, although officials said that figure did not represent the total number of people affected.
The Government has promised tougher supervision, including electronic tagging and restriction zones preventing some offenders from approaching their victims. Domestic abuse campaigners have called for tags to be fitted before release and for breaches of boundaries to trigger an immediate police response.
