Premier League predictions for the weekend have highlighted potential value in backing Leeds United against Manchester United, Brentford to avoid defeat against Liverpool and several high-priced goalscorer bets. Tipster Lewis Jones, known as Jones Knows, has also identified set pieces, defensive weaknesses and disciplinary markets as key areas to watch.
Everton v Chelsea
Everton’s threat from dead-ball situations could prove decisive against Chelsea, who have conceded seven set-piece goals this season – more than any other Premier League side.
Under David Moyes, Everton have built much of their identity around physicality and aerial strength at corners and free kicks. Chelsea’s vulnerability appears to be more than a short-term concern, having conceded set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes since the start of last season, the highest figure in the division over that period.
James Tarkowski is regarded as the standout option in the goalscorer market. The Everton defender leads the club’s defenders for touches in the opposition box and shots, while he has scored three times in his last 15 matches.
The prediction is a 2-2 draw, with Tarkowski to score at 14/1.
Brentford v Liverpool
Brentford’s style could again cause problems for Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola, who has failed to win any of his seven meetings with the club and has lost five of them.
Brentford’s direct approach can bypass an aggressive press and turn matches into physical contests built around second balls. Liverpool’s attacking figures also provide grounds for caution, with only six non-penalty Premier League goals and nine Opta-defined big chances created – the joint-lowest total alongside Aston Villa and Coventry City.
That has led to a recommendation of Brentford on the double chance alongside fewer than 3.5 goals at 11/10. The predicted result is a 2-1 Brentford victory.
Fulham v Hull City
Hull City are being viewed as a side whose current form deserves greater respect than their longer-term data may suggest. They have lost only one of their six Premier League matches this season, and even in that defeat by Newcastle they won the expected-goals battle.
Hull also came out on top in expected goals during their 2-2 draw at Chelsea. Their ability to compete with established Premier League opposition could expose Fulham’s defensive fragility, particularly after collapses from winning positions against Ipswich and Crystal Palace.
Hull are backed on the double chance at 6/5, with a 2-1 away win the predicted scoreline.
Manchester City v Ipswich Town
Manchester City’s results have been impressive, but their underlying numbers suggest Ipswich could have opportunities to score. City have exceeded their expected-goals figures by more than any other team, while an expected-points model indicates they should have collected around seven fewer points.
Sunderland created 2.97 expected goals from 17 shots in a match against City, while Coventry managed 12 shots in a 1-0 defeat at the Etihad Stadium. The recommendation is for both teams to score at 4/5, with City predicted to win 3-1.
Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Johan Manzambi has emerged as an appealing goalscorer option for Aston Villa after registering 13 shots in his last three starts, including four efforts on target and two goals.
The Swiss forward has been given an advanced role under Unai Emery, and Newcastle’s home defensive record offers further encouragement. If they fail to keep a clean sheet, they will establish a club record for 16 consecutive home matches in all competitions without one.
Newcastle have conceded 36 goals and kept only two clean sheets in 20 home games across all competitions this calendar year. Manzambi is backed to score at 3/1, with Villa tipped to win 2-1.
Bournemouth v Sunderland
With Bournemouth and Sunderland having managed only one win between them across their six matches this season, a cautious contest is being anticipated on Sunday.
Bournemouth’s recent history of high-scoring games could make an open match appear likely, but the heavy defeat by Chelsea may encourage greater defensive caution. Neither side has yet shown enough consistency to command complete confidence, making fewer than 2.5 goals at evens an attractive option.
The predicted result is a 1-1 draw.
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Pascal Gross is being backed to continue his strong start to the season when Brighton face Crystal Palace. The midfielder has scored four times and also has the added benefit of taking penalties.
Brighton are expected to create plenty of chances, with their projected goal output approaching three. Gross’ technical quality, shooting threat and ability to find dangerous positions make his price of 7/2 appear attractive in the goalscorer market.
Brighton are predicted to win 3-0, with Gross to score.
Leeds United v Manchester United
Leeds United are being tipped to take advantage of Manchester United’s current instability when the sides meet at Elland Road. The home side’s intensity and recent record make their odds-against price particularly appealing.
Leeds have collected 45 points from 31 Premier League games since the start of December 2025, a tally bettered by only five teams. Their home record over the same period is stronger still, with 29 points – more than all but Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United.
The prediction is a 2-0 Leeds win, with the hosts recommended at 13/10 to take all three points.
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Arsenal remain one of the Premier League’s strongest defensive teams, although their numbers have shifted since William Saliba’s absence. With Gabriel and Saliba together, Arsenal averaged 0.65 expected goals against per game; that figure has risen to 0.9 this season.
Arsenal have also conceded five goals in their last four league matches, while Nottingham Forest have been creating 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. Their attacking output suggests they may pose a greater threat than their actual goal return indicates.
Both teams to score is the recommended bet at 10/11, despite Arsenal being predicted to win 2-1.
Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City
The disciplinary market is the main focus for Tottenham’s meeting with Coventry City. Since Roberto De Zerbi took charge, opposition teams have averaged 2.3 cards per 90 minutes against Spurs.
Tottenham’s wide players, including Savio and Mohamed Kudus, are expected to put opposing defenders under sustained pressure. Savio has drawn a card every 154 minutes of Premier League football in his career, while Kudus won 21 bookings from opponents in his final season at West Ham.
Coventry full-back Milan van Ewijk has already been booked twice this season and is considered the player most at risk of entering the referee’s notebook. His price to be booked is 7/2, while the match is predicted to finish 2-1.
