Senior Republicans are privately conceding that the party may be unable to retain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, with efforts increasingly focused on limiting losses and protecting its Senate majority.
Five senior Republican lawmakers, speaking anonymously about the party’s position, said the House was effectively slipping away. One said the immediate aim was to “save as many Republican seats as we can”, adding that President Donald Trump was not helping the party’s prospects.
“President Trump has made this election all about himself,” the lawmaker said. “Now we have to survive that political storm.”
A second Republican member predicted that Democrats could gain about 10 House seats, which would be sufficient to take control of the chamber. The lawmaker said Republican candidates were “hanging on with their fingernails” even in newly redrawn conservative states including Florida and Texas.
Republican campaign groups have already withdrawn from several districts they no longer regard as winnable. Those include seats held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa and Tom Kean Jr in New Jersey, while the party last week abandoned its effort in an Omaha-based district held by retiring representative Don Bacon.
More candidates could be cut off from Republican advertising in the coming days, according to Trump officials and senior party operatives. The intention is to redirect money towards races where it may have a greater effect.
The party is also facing pressure in the Midwest, where it is spending heavily to defend Senate seats in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas – states previously regarded as reliably supportive of the Trump movement.
Republicans shift resources towards Senate contests
The change in strategy has been reflected in decisions by Republican campaign organisations. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading House Republican super PAC, recently cancelled advertising for candidates in Nebraska and Iowa, allowing Senate-focused Republican groups to take over the airtime in support of Nebraska senator Pete Ricketts and Ashley Hinson, who is running for the Senate in Iowa.
“These are not the moves of a party that’s going to keep the House,” a third Republican lawmaker said.
The Congressional Leadership Fund and the National Republican Congressional Committee both denied that they had abandoned the fight for the chamber. NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said districts were won “one by one” and that Republicans had “the financial firepower and ground game needed to win”.
Chris Winkelman, the Congressional Leadership Fund’s president, said the organisation would continue moving money around to maximise its national impact. The objective, he said, was to “keep the pressure on the most vulnerable Democrats and preserve a path to 218 seats”.
White House officials also insisted that Mr Trump remained committed to retaining Republican control of both chambers of Congress. White House spokeswoman Liz Huston said he was “committed to maintaining Republican majorities in both the House and Senate”.
Mr Trump expressed optimism about the elections as he left on Tuesday to campaign in Alaska for embattled Republican senator Dan Sullivan, while acknowledging that presidents typically see their party lose seats in midterm contests.
“But I’m doing a tour right now and I’m doing rallies,” he said. “The level of enthusiasm for the Republican Party is way up.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed polling showing Republicans at risk of a broad defeat, declaring during a campaign stop in Texas that “the polling is wrong”.
Former Florida Republican congressman Carlos Curbelo, who lost his swing seat during Mr Trump’s first midterm election, said the private assessment among Republicans was more pessimistic.
“The environment is about as tough as one could expect,” Mr Curbelo said. “There is no one who has privately stated that they believe Republicans can hold the House — not in recent weeks, anyway.”
