Democrat James Talarico has opened a two-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas US Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll that underlines the contest’s exceptionally narrow margins.
Talarico was backed by 51% of likely voters, compared with 49% for Paxton. The difference is within the survey’s three-point margin of error, leaving the race effectively level ahead of November’s midterm election.
The poll, conducted between September 24 and 28 by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, is the first Fox News survey of the general-election contest among likely Texas voters. It questioned 881 likely voters, with a wider sample of 1,203 registered voters also included.
Texas Senate poll shows sharply divided electorate
Talarico holds the advantage on personal ratings. Fifty-two per cent of likely voters view him favourably, against 44% who hold an unfavourable view, giving him a net rating of plus eight.
Paxton’s rating is underwater, with 40% viewing him favourably and 58% unfavourably. The Republican candidate nevertheless retains strong support among core conservative groups, including white evangelical Christians, rural voters and older Texans.
Talarico’s strongest backing comes from Black voters, moderates, Hispanic voters and those aged under 35. He is supported by 79% of Black voters, 65% of moderates, 64% of Hispanic voters and 62% of voters younger than 35.
Paxton leads among white evangelical Christians at 74%, white men without a university degree at 65%, rural voters at 57% and voters aged 65 and over at 55%.
The survey also points to continuing divisions within the Republican coalition. Ninety-six per cent of MAGA Republicans said they would vote for Paxton, compared with 78% of non-MAGA Republicans. Around one in five voters who backed Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary and run-off said they now supported Talarico.
Among Democrats, support for Talarico is almost unanimous: 100% of likely voters identifying as Democratic Socialists and 98% of other Democrats said they backed him.
Cost of living is a central issue in the Texas Senate race
The economy appears to be influencing the contest. Thirty-five per cent of likely voters said they were falling behind financially, more than twice the 16% who said they were getting ahead. Those falling behind favoured Talarico by 32 points, while voters who said they were doing better backed Paxton by 48 points.
Cost of living was described as extremely important by 68% of voters and very important by a further 24%. Trump and immigration also loom large, with two-thirds saying the president was either extremely or very important to their decision, while eight in 10 gave the same rating to immigration.
Both candidates face concerns over their political positioning. Fifty-three per cent of likely voters worry that Talarico is too liberal, while 51% are concerned that Paxton is too closely aligned with Donald Trump.
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas said the Fox News figures were consistent with a series of recent surveys showing a closely fought race. Polls conducted in September have generally placed Talarico narrowly ahead, although the margins have remained within or close to the surveys’ margins of error.
