Donald Trump has declared that the United States holds “almost total control” of the Strait of Hormuz, but renewed exchanges of fire with Iran have underlined how far the conflict remains from the swift conclusion he once promised.
In a post on Tuesday night, the US president dismissed stalled negotiations with Tehran and urged Iranians to rise against their government. “I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement,” he wrote, arguing that Iran’s economy was collapsing and that its defeat was inevitable.
His comments followed a fresh wave of American strikes on Iranian military positions near the strategically vital waterway. US Central Command said the attacks targeted air defence sites, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-laying capabilities and communications facilities.
The command said the operation was carried out after alleged attempts by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to attack commercial shipping in the strait and American personnel in the region. US officials said about 100 targets were struck, while American forces continued escorting vessels through the waterway.
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against US-linked positions in the region, including bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, according to American and regional officials. The attacks came after US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island at the weekend, saying they were being prepared for use in laying mines.
Mr Trump threatened a far more severe response if Tehran retaliated. He said the United States had carried out a “very justified attack” and warned that a larger assault was “waiting in the wings”, after which, he claimed, little of the Islamic Republic would remain.
Despite that rhetoric, Iran continues to exert pressure through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the movement of oil and gas from Gulf states. The waterway has remained largely closed to normal commercial traffic, with only a limited number of ships passing each day despite repeated White House claims that it is open.
The dangers facing shipping were highlighted by the Saudi company Bahri, which said two Filipino sailors were killed when its vessel was attacked while transiting the strait on Monday. Britain’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre also reported that a tanker had been struck by three projectiles while leaving the Gulf, although there were no reported casualties or environmental damage in that incident.
Iranian authorities have separately alleged that an American strike hit a wedding gathering in the southern town of Kuhestak, killing civilians and injuring dozens. The US military said it was aware of the reports and insisted that it “never targets civilians”.
The conflict is now six months old, considerably longer than Mr Trump’s prediction that it would be over within weeks. His administration has sought to weaken Tehran through sanctions and a naval blockade, but China continues to buy Iranian oil and provide raw materials and technology, leaving Washington reluctant to open a further economic confrontation with Beijing.
The domestic consequences are also becoming harder for the president to ignore. The disruption to energy supplies has pushed Brent crude above 95 dollars a barrel, while the continuing war risks further pressure on the American economy and on Republican prospects in November’s midterm elections.
A ceasefire agreement reached in June rapidly collapsed amid further strikes. Pakistan, which helped mediate the earlier arrangement, said on Wednesday that it remained in contact with both Washington and Tehran, but Mr Trump said he would not force Iran back to the negotiating table.
