The race to choose the next United Nations secretary-general is entering a tense final phase, with eight candidates still competing and no clear consensus emerging from a series of secret Security Council polls.
The council is seeking to recommend a successor to António Guterres before his term ends on December 31. The eventual nominee must secure at least nine votes in the 15-member council and avoid a veto from any of its five permanent members.
How the UN secretary-general is chosen
Although all 193 UN member states formally vote to approve the council’s recommendation, the decisive contest takes place behind closed doors in the Security Council.
China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States hold permanent seats and can veto a candidate. They sit alongside 10 elected members, currently Bahrain, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Denmark, Greece, Latvia, Liberia, Pakistan, Panama and Somalia.
Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the council recommends a candidate to the General Assembly. The assembly has never rejected a nominee put forward by the council, although it extended the term of the secretary-general in 1950 without a council recommendation after a deadlock.
The council’s selection process begins with informal, anonymous “straw polls”. Members indicate whether they “encourage”, “discourage” or have “no opinion” about each candidate. The results are not officially published, but figures are frequently leaked.
Later rounds use different-coloured ballot papers to distinguish the votes of permanent and elected members. Once a candidate has at least nine encouraging votes and no vetoes, a formal recommendation can be made to the General Assembly.
Jane Kinninmont, chief executive of the United Nations Association UK, said the process had traditionally been “closed and secretive”, but had become more open following campaigning by civil society groups and member states.
However, she said the Security Council still protected its secrecy as part of a political culture that many countries considered outdated. One argument for confidentiality, she said, was that states did not want to risk alienating a candidate who was ultimately appointed after they had supported someone else.
The leading candidates and the latest poll
Two of the leading contenders are Rebeca Grynspan, head of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Grynspan, from Costa Rica, helped broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Russia and Ukraine in 2022. If appointed, she would become the first woman and first Jewish person to lead the UN.
Grossi, from Argentina, has led the UN nuclear agency since 2019 and been involved in efforts to prevent a nuclear escalation between Russia and Ukraine. He has also faced criticism from Iran over reports on its nuclear programme, which Tehran believes helped provide a pretext for attacks by the United States and Israel.
The remaining candidates are Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garces, a former president of the General Assembly from Ecuador; Lana Zaki Nusseibeh, the United Arab Emirates’ minister of state for foreign affairs; Feridun Hadi Sinirlioglu, head of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe from Türkiye; Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, Guyana’s ambassador to the UN; Ecuadorian politician Ivonne A-Baki; and Ugandan politician Olara Otunnu.
Eight straw polls have been held, but none has produced a candidate without any discouraging votes. In the latest poll, Grynspan led with 12 encouraging votes, three discouraging votes and no votes recorded as expressing no opinion.
Grossi received nine encouraging votes, four discouraging votes and two no-opinion votes. Rodrigues Birkett was third with eight encouraging votes, five discouraging votes and two no-opinion votes.
The results do not show how the permanent members voted or whether any of them used, or effectively signalled, a veto. A candidate must receive no discouraging vote from a permanent member to secure the nomination.
What happens if the council cannot agree?
The UN Charter does not specify what should happen if no successor is selected before Guterres’s term expires. The council could recommend a shorter term, settle on a compromise candidate or, as it did in 1996 when Kofi Annan was chosen after a deadlock, find a way through prolonged disagreement.
Member states could also ask a senior UN official to oversee the organisation temporarily. Guterres has been asked whether he would remain in post if no replacement were chosen, but has given no firm commitment, saying he expects to return to Portugal on January 1.
Calls for a more open process have grown alongside criticism of the permanent members’ ability to block candidates supported by much of the council and the wider membership. Any move to give the General Assembly a greater role, however, would require the five permanent members to surrender some of their influence.
One proposed reform would see the Security Council put forward two or three candidates for the General Assembly to choose between, rather than presenting it with a single name.
