Manchester City have been tipped to beat Liverpool at Anfield, while Tottenham are backed to avoid defeat against Manchester United in Lewis Jones’s Premier League predictions for the weekend.
Jones expects City to respond positively after being found guilty of serious financial-rule breaches across nine seasons by an independent Premier League commission. The club has appealed, meaning the sporting consequences have not yet been settled.
He believes the verdict has not, so far, shown clear signs of destabilising Pep Guardiola’s squad. Guardiola has backed the club, while Erling Haaland has called for positivity, and City remain top of the Premier League.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have injury concerns following the international break. Jones has therefore selected a 2-1 City win, with the visitors available at 7/5.
Premier League predictions after the international break
The first round of fixtures after the break could prove difficult to assess, with players returning from international duty after an unusually demanding schedule. Fatigue, injuries, travel and limited preparation time may be particularly significant during the opening 45 minutes.
Across the Premier League and Championship over the past five seasons, first-half goals have fallen from an average of 1.22 to 0.92 in the first matchday after the first international break. In the Premier League alone, the average has been 0.82, with half of the matches finishing goalless at half-time.
That trend is central to the recommendation for Arsenal’s home meeting with Leeds. Leeds have conceded only twice in the first half of their last 20 matches in all competitions, while 11 of those games were goalless at the interval.
Arsenal are expected to edge the game 1-0, but the main selection is 0-0 at half-time at 9/4.
Aston Villa are also backed to take advantage of home support against Brentford, despite the visitors being priced close to favourites. Villa’s recent victory at Tottenham featured encouraging performances from Johan Manzambi, Zion Suzuki and Nicolas Jackson, and Jones expects Unai Emery’s side to prevail 2-1 at 13/8.
Chelsea’s meeting with Bournemouth is forecast to produce more goals. All five of Chelsea’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.4 goals per game, while both teams have scored in 13 of Bournemouth’s last 17 away matches.
The suggested combination is a Chelsea win, both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals at 6/4, with a predicted 3-1 scoreline.
Ipswich’s Leif Davis is another recommended selection against Fulham. Operating as an aggressive left-back in Gary O’Neil’s 4-2-3-1 system, Davis has recorded six shots in his last four starts, with three on target and two goals. He is backed at 11/4 to score or assist in a predicted 2-1 Ipswich win.
Sunderland are regarded as a better prospect than the market suggests against Brighton. Despite concerns over Brian Brobbey and Dan Ballard, Jones points to Sunderland’s home record since promotion, with only five defeats in 24 matches and fewer than a goal conceded per game. The recommendation is Sunderland draw-no-bet at 11/10, with a 2-1 home victory predicted.
Manchester United are considered vulnerable against Tottenham, with their physical and running statistics a particular concern. United were outrun by 6.5 kilometres in their last match at Fulham and rank in the bottom five for distance covered, the bottom four for sprints and last for high-speed runs.
With United offered at 4/6 despite the possibility of their worst league start in 40 years if they fail to win, Tottenham are backed on the double chance at 6/5. The prediction is a 2-1 Spurs victory.
Crystal Palace’s meeting with Nottingham Forest is expected to be a more physical affair. The clubs have developed a growing rivalry following Oliver Glasner’s move from Palace to Forest, while Forest replaced Palace in the Europa League because of multi-club ownership rules.
All four recent meetings have produced fewer than 2.5 goals, but the games have averaged seven cards, with each of the last five going beyond 4.5 cards. Over 3.5 cards at evens is the recommended bet, alongside a 1-1 prediction.
In the Championship, Hull’s direct approach could create opportunities for Everton centre-back Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled. Hull have the league’s highest long-pass rate, while Oli McBurnie’s aerial presence has contributed to opposing centre-backs being fouled regularly. Branthwaite has been fouled three times in his last two matches and is backed at evens to be fouled again in a predicted 1-1 draw.
Coventry’s home game against Newcastle is forecast to finish level. Coventry have already faced the Premier League’s top three and lost those matches 8-0 on aggregate, while Bobby Thomas represents a threat from set pieces against a Newcastle side that has conceded 31 shots from dead-ball situations. Thomas is available at 8/1 to score, with a 1-1 scoreline predicted.
The four highlighted selections are a goalless first half in Arsenal v Leeds, Davis to score or assist for Ipswich, over 3.5 cards in Palace v Forest and Branthwaite to be fouled against Hull.
