High wind shear is continuing to suppress tropical storm development across the Atlantic basin, with forecasters expecting no new named system to form over the next several days.
The hostile upper-level winds are disrupting tropical waves before they can become organised, leaving the open Atlantic unusually quiet as the hurricane season enters October.
Wind shear occurs when wind speed or direction changes with height. In developing tropical systems, that can tilt thunderstorms away from the storm’s centre, preventing the circulation from strengthening.
El Niño keeps Atlantic conditions hostile
The pattern is being reinforced by a strong El Niño, which is increasing westerly winds high in the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic. The resulting shear is making it difficult for disturbances to maintain the thunderstorms needed for tropical development.
NOAA’s seasonal outlook has placed the likelihood of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season at 75 per cent. Forecasters say the Pacific climate pattern is offsetting other factors that might otherwise support storm formation, including relatively warm ocean temperatures.
Meteorologists will continue watching for short-lived pockets where wind shear eases. A brief improvement in conditions could allow a disturbance to organise, although there is currently no clear sign of significant development in the Atlantic.
Attention turns to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
As October progresses, the focus of tropical forecasting normally shifts away from the central Atlantic towards the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, where waters remain warm later in the season.
Even there, El Niño can produce strong wind shear, particularly across the Gulf during October, limiting the ability of tropical systems to consolidate. However, forecasters caution that localised changes in the atmosphere can still create opportunities for development.
For now, computer guidance indicates quiet conditions across the Atlantic basin into early next week, with no tropical storm formation expected in the immediate outlook.
