Democrat James Talarico holds a five-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’s US Senate race, with independent voters continuing to give him a substantial advantage, a new poll suggests.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey puts Talarico on 49 per cent, compared with 44 per cent for Paxton. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown has 3 per cent, while a further 3 per cent remain undecided.
Among independent voters, Talarico leads Paxton by 58 per cent to 32 per cent, although his overall advantage has narrowed by one point since TPOR’s August survey. The proportion of undecided voters has also fallen from 7 per cent to 3 per cent.
Independent voters hold the balance in Texas Senate race
The poll indicates that voters are backing the candidates largely because of their overall view of them. Approval of the candidate was the most frequently cited reason among supporters of both men, mentioned by 21 per cent of Talarico voters and 25 per cent of Paxton supporters.
Paxton’s backers also pointed to their opposition to Talarico, Republican loyalty and the attorney general’s record. Talarico supporters described him as a champion of ordinary people, praised his honesty and character, and said they wanted new leadership.
Voters gave Talarico an advantage on two issues tested in the survey. He was considered more capable than Paxton of handling artificial intelligence and data-centre policy, by 45 per cent to 40 per cent.
He was also favoured on tackling the cost-of-living crisis and improving the financial position of ordinary Texans, leading Paxton by 49 per cent to 42 per cent.
The closely fought contest has prompted increased Republican spending. MAGA Inc., the political group associated with Donald Trump, has committed $10 million to television and digital advertising supporting Paxton, while a super PAC linked to Texas senator Ted Cruz has announced a further campaign worth more than $1.7 million. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/02c5df4adf9fa09d9063e8259625fadc))
Trump backed Paxton in the Republican primary, in which he defeated incumbent senator John Cornyn. Talarico, a Democratic state representative, is seeking to win a Senate seat in a state that has traditionally favoured Republicans in federal elections. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/02c5df4adf9fa09d9063e8259625fadc))
TPOR interviewed 1,007 likely Texas voters between September 19 and September 22, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, meaning the race remains within the range where the result could shift before November’s election.
