The United States is reportedly considering a major reduction in its military presence in Europe after European allies refused to allow American forces to use their airbases for attacks on Iran.
Senior Pentagon commanders are expected to present options to Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth in the coming days, amid Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine and growing concerns in Europe about possible sabotage operations.
US troop withdrawal options in Europe
One proposal would remove about one-third of the estimated 68,000 US troops stationed in Europe, mainly affecting forces based in Germany, Italy and Spain.
A more extensive plan could see 40,000 troops leave, alongside military aircraft, ships and weapons. The Pentagon is also considering moving personnel from central or western Europe to Nato’s eastern flank, closer to Russia.
Mr Hegseth is expected to make a final decision by November 6. The options form part of a wider Nato review announced by the Pentagon in June.
At a meeting in Brussels that month, Mr Hegseth said changes would be designed to ensure Europe moved “fast and irreversibly” towards taking primary responsibility for its own defence.
He described European governments’ refusal to provide access to bases for US operations against Iran as “shameful”, saying the decision had put American service personnel at risk by denying them “predictable access, basing and overflight”.
Troops have already begun leaving
The United States has already reduced its forces in parts of Europe. About half of the 2,000 American troops stationed in Romania left last year, while roughly 5,000 personnel are in the process of withdrawing from Germany.
More than half of the US military contingent in Europe is based in Germany. The withdrawal announcement in May followed criticism of the US war on Iran by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Donald Trump threatened to go “a lot further”, although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly blocked an earlier proposal to withdraw as many as 25,000 troops.
Impact on Nato and European security
A large-scale departure of troops and military assets could weaken America’s nuclear deterrence posture in Europe, according to Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.
Mr Lesser said Russia would see advantages in such a move, although the consequences would depend on where and when troops were withdrawn. A redeployment from western Europe to Nato’s eastern flank could be less troubling, particularly as Germany and France are increasing their military capabilities.
The United States could also lose some of its ability to project power across Europe. Republican senior figures have warned that the move could send “the wrong signal to [Russian President] Vladimir Putin”.
European countries have relied for decades on their partnership with Washington through Nato to deter a possible Russian attack. Relations between some European capitals and the Trump administration have deteriorated over defence spending, the war in Iran and trade.
Mr Trump has repeatedly accused European Nato members of leaving the US to carry too much of the alliance’s financial burden. He has called for members to spend 5 per cent of their gross domestic product on defence, while Nato countries have agreed to raise spending to 3.5 per cent by 2035.
Tensions have also been fuelled by US tariffs on European imports and a dispute over Greenland. On Friday, Mr Trump said he had reached a new deal with Greenland and Denmark granting the US “permanent control over security and all other needs” in the territory.
