Brazil’s fertilizer import dependence is emerging as a threat to the global food supply, despite the country being the world’s largest net food exporter. The country imports roughly 90% of the fertilizer used by its farms, leaving crop production exposed to price rises, sanctions and disruptions to international shipping.
Brazilian agriculture consumes more than a tenth of the world’s fertilizer, while domestic production accounts for barely 1%. The country imports almost a fifth of all fertilizer traded internationally, according to 2024 data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
The reliance is particularly acute for nitrogen, with imports meeting about 99% of demand. Brazil recorded the world’s largest nitrogen-fertilizer trade deficit in 2024, worth US$4.3 billion, with China, Russia, Nigeria and Oman among its main suppliers.
Phosphate imports account for about 70% of Brazilian use, mainly supplied by Morocco and Russia. Potash presents an even greater vulnerability: around 98% is imported, largely from Canada, Russia and Belarus.
Brazil uses almost a quarter of the world’s potash, yet relies on three countries for nearly all of its supply. Global potash production is concentrated in Canada, Russia, Belarus and China, while potassium has no substitute as a plant nutrient.
That concentration means a disruption affecting Brazilian imports could spread well beyond the country’s farms. A shortage or sharp increase in fertilizer prices could lead farmers to use less, reducing yields and affecting global supplies of Brazilian soy, corn and meat.
Nitrogen fertiliser is also closely tied to energy markets because it is produced mainly using natural gas. Price shocks, sanctions or blocked shipping routes can therefore move rapidly from energy markets to farms, linking energy security, fertilizer security and food security.
Brazil turns to domestic fertilizer production
Governments and development banks have begun treating fertilizer supply as a food-security and national-security issue following the price surge after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz this year.
In the United States, the Trump administration has committed more than US$1.3 billion to eight projects intended to expand domestic fertilizer manufacturing. Six multilateral development banks also issued a joint statement in August 2026 pledging to strengthen fertilizer supply chains worldwide.
Brazil’s National Fertilizer Plan aims to increase domestic potash production to 6.3 million metric tonnes by 2030 and 14.6 million tonnes a year by 2050, measured as potassium oxide. It also sets a broader target of reducing imports to about 45% of the fertilizer used in the country by 2050.
The Profert law, signed in September 2026, authorises up to 10 billion Brazilian reais, equivalent to about US$2 billion, in tax credits and incentives for domestic fertilizer plants.
Plans include developing Brazil’s substantial but largely undeveloped potash reserves, including deposits in Amazonas state. Petrobras has also signalled plans to restart two mothballed ammonia and urea plants and build two new facilities.
Large mines and industrial plants would provide the scale needed for potash, phosphate and nitrogen production. Smaller modular facilities, powered by renewable energy or agricultural waste, could be built closer to farms and reduce the distance between ports and fields.
Potassium recovery from manure, crop residues and food-processing waste could provide an additional regional supply alongside mined potash. Nitrogen production could combine large plants with decentralised facilities supported by Brazil’s hydropower resources.
The six development banks behind the August statement, including the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, are preparing a roadmap to finance fertilizer production, storage and transport. Brazil’s ability to develop those projects will help determine whether it can protect its own agricultural output and continue supplying food to countries that depend on it.
