Latino voters have swung sharply towards Democrats ahead of the US midterm elections, threatening Republican hopes of retaining control of Congress after Donald Trump made significant gains with the group in 2024.
Fifty-nine per cent of Latino registered voters now favour a Congress controlled by Democrats, compared with 35 per cent who prefer Republican control, according to an NBC News/Telemundo poll released on Sunday. The 24-point Democratic advantage is twice the lead recorded in the poll’s September 2024 edition.
A separate CBS News/YouGov survey found a similar divide among Hispanic likely voters, with 60 per cent supporting a Democratic House candidate and 39 per cent backing a Republican.
The findings put pressure on a Republican Party that had made gains among Latino voters central to its strategy for keeping the House. An analysis of the 2024 election found that Trump increased his share of the vote by an average of more than six percentage points in majority-Hispanic counties compared with 2020.
Those gains also featured prominently in Republican redistricting plans. When Texas Republicans unveiled their proposal last year, four of the five potential Republican pickup opportunities were in majority-Hispanic districts.
Economic concerns drive Latino voters’ shift
Trump’s approval rating among Latino registered voters stands at 27 per cent in the NBC/Telemundo poll, while 69 per cent disapprove of his performance. His ratings are particularly weak on economic issues, with 74 per cent disapproving of his handling of the economy and 78 per cent dissatisfied with his response to the cost of living.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents, or 65 per cent, said Trump’s policies had harmed economic conditions. Inflation and the cost of living were identified as the country’s most important issues by 33 per cent, followed by government corruption on 22 per cent and jobs and the economy on 10 per cent.
Economic frustration helped Trump attract Latino voters in 2024. Democrats acknowledged after his victory that he had connected more effectively with the group on financial concerns.
But the latest surveys show Democrats now holding a clear advantage on those issues. Latino voters prefer the Democrats over Republicans on the economy by 48 per cent to 27 per cent, and on the cost of living by 45 per cent to 26 per cent.
Energy costs are also weighing on voters’ views amid the war with Iran, which is now in its seventh month. The average price of diesel reached a record $6.53 in September, according to AAA, while 91 per cent of Hispanic registered voters in the CBS survey attributed rising US oil and gas prices to the conflict.
Immigration policy creates divisions for Republicans
Trump’s immigration crackdown has also left vulnerable Republicans on the defensive. Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican from Florida, released an advertisement in English and Spanish saying the administration had gone “too far” and that Hispanics who supported Trump in 2024 felt “betrayed”.
Trump initially told reporters he continued to support Ms Salazar, saying: “I’m very strong on the borders — and she isn’t.” He later reposted a series of messages on Truth Social attacking the Florida Republican, including one calling for her to be replaced before the midterms.
In the NBC/Telemundo poll, 67 per cent of Latino voters said Trump’s immigration enforcement had gone too far, while 22 per cent said he had taken the right approach.
The shift away from Trump and the Republicans has not produced broadly favourable views of the Democrats. Latino voters were almost evenly divided in their opinion of the Democratic Party, with 41 per cent viewing it positively and 42 per cent negatively.
Negative views of the Republican Party had risen to 62 per cent, up from 46 per cent in September 2024.
The NBC/Telemundo poll surveyed 800 Latino registered voters between September 21 and 28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. The CBS/YouGov survey questioned 2,166 adults between September 30 and October 2, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
