The Coalition’s plan to cut net overseas migration to 100,000 people a year has prompted questions over whether the target is achievable, with former immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi arguing that migrants are being blamed for problems that lie elsewhere.
Rizvi said Australia’s migration system was under significant strain, with visa processing slowing and people becoming trapped in a growing backlog. But he also pointed to data tracking every permanent migrant who had arrived since 2000, saying it showed migrants had generally performed strongly in economic terms.
“On average, a permanent migrant to Australia since 2000 is significantly more qualified in terms of a post-school qualification, far more likely to be employed, far more likely to be earning a higher income, far more likely to have started a business, far less likely to be unemployed, far less likely to be using health services,” he said.
Rizvi said the figures raised questions about claims that migration was responsible for Australia’s poor productivity. “The problems with our productivity rate lie elsewhere. We’re blaming the wrong people,” he said.
Migration system faces pressure
He said the focus of the political debate should instead be on repairing the system and reducing net overseas migration from its current level of about 292,000 a year.
Rizvi argued that a lower figure was necessary if Australia wanted to reduce the number of people stuck in immigration limbo. He also said the temporary graduate and student streams could be better targeted, with people trained in areas such as nursing and engineering more likely to be retained because their skills were in long-term demand.
The rapid growth in temporary migration has contributed to a shortage of places in the permanent programme, leaving a large number of people unable to progress through the system, he said.
Rizvi attributed responsibility to both major political parties. He said the former Coalition government had sharply increased immigration after the Covid pandemic in response to intense pressure from businesses facing labour shortages.
Net overseas migration subsequently reached 538,000 in 2022-23. Rizvi said the initial response from the Labor government was to describe the increase as catch-up migration and argue that net overseas migration was not something it managed.
He said the position changed when the prime minister committed to delivering the government’s migration forecasts in the budget.
The long-term impact of lower migration
Rizvi also warned that cutting migration too far could have significant demographic consequences. If net overseas migration became negative, Australia would reach sooner the point at which deaths exceeded births, while the proportion of older people would rise relative to the working-age population.
That would leave fewer working-age people supporting an older population and increase the contribution required from them to the economy, he said.
At the same time, Rizvi acknowledged that migration could not be increased without limit because of the pressure it placed on housing, infrastructure and public services.
“There is a sweet spot here, and I think that’s what we should be talking about,” he said.
