Democrat James Talarico has opened up a six-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to a new Marist poll released on Wednesday.
The survey puts Mr Talarico on 50 per cent and Mr Paxton on 44 per cent among registered voters, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The findings suggest Democrats could be competitive in two of Texas’s biggest statewide contests in November, a prospect not seen in more than three decades.
The poll, conducted between September 17 and 20 among 1,139 registered Texas voters, found Mr Talarico attracting 55 per cent support among independents.
However, the Democrat’s advantage is tempered by voters’ expectations about the result. Despite Mr Talarico’s lead in stated support, 52 per cent of respondents said they believed Mr Paxton would ultimately win the Senate contest.
Texas governor’s race remains within the margin of error
The same survey showed an even tighter race for governor, with Democrat Gina Hinojosa narrowly ahead of Republican incumbent Greg Abbott by 49 per cent to 46 per cent.
That three-point gap falls within the poll’s margin of error, making the contest a statistical tie. Ms Hinojosa also held the advantage among independent voters, with 52 per cent support.
Nevertheless, Mr Abbott remained the clear favourite in terms of voter expectations: 68 per cent of those surveyed said they thought he would be re-elected.
The generic congressional ballot produced a similar Democratic advantage, with 49 per cent saying they would back a Democratic candidate and 46 per cent favouring a Republican. Yet 60 per cent believed the Republican candidate in their district would win.
The results point to a gap between voters’ preferences and their expectations about the November election, particularly in a state where Republicans have dominated statewide contests for years.
President Donald Trump’s standing also emerged as a significant factor. More Texans said their congressional vote would be a vote against Mr Trump, at 39 per cent, than in support of him, at 25 per cent. A further 34 per cent said he would not affect their decision.
Mr Trump’s job approval rating in Texas stood at 43 per cent, while 55 per cent disapproved of his performance.
Economic concerns were also prominent. Only 23 per cent of voters said their finances had improved over the past year, compared with 38 per cent who said they had worsened and an equal proportion who said they had remained unchanged.
Affordability is expected to remain a central issue in the Senate race. Mr Paxton has promoted tax deductions, an expanded child tax credit and permanent “Trump Accounts”, while Mr Talarico has focused on higher wages, broader tax credits and action against companies he says are driving up prices.
