Russia could test Nato within months rather than years, a senior Czech intelligence chief has warned, as European governments face growing concern over Moscow’s suspected sabotage, cyberattacks and other “hybrid” operations.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, said a Russian incursion into Nato territory was possible and could be accompanied by false-flag provocations and an influence campaign.
“This along with false-flag provocations and an influence campaign could begin to take place in a matter of ‘months, not years’,” he said.
His warning came as Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, said intelligence assessments suggested Russia could launch a drone or missile attack on Nato territory in the coming months. The aim, he said, could be to test whether Article 5, the alliance’s mutual-defence clause, was “more theoretical than practical”.
But Latvia’s state security chief, Normunds Mežviets, said his agency had seen clear signs of increased Russian interference in Europe but no indications of an imminent attack.
“It’s still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it’s just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in western society,” Mr Mežviets said.
Russia’s suspected hybrid campaign
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European allies have linked a series of incidents to Russia’s campaign below the threshold of open warfare. These have included drone flights near sensitive sites, airspace violations and cyberattacks.
Germany has blamed Moscow for an incident at Leipzig airport, while the European Union said it bore the hallmarks of “state-sponsored terrorism”. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has also warned of growing Russian shadow operations and ordered measures to protect critical infrastructure from hybrid attacks.
Security expert Philip Ingram said suspected Russian activity had included assassinations, the use of nerve agents such as Novichok and the deployment of Polonium-210 on the streets of London.
He also pointed to suspected sabotage at warehouses in London, explosives carried by drones at Leipzig airport and unexplained drone activity near Ireland, US Air Force bases in Britain and military or critical infrastructure sites in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and elsewhere in Europe.
There have also been threats against the leaders of arms companies in Scandinavia and Germany, as well as British firms involved in supplying Ukraine. Cyberattacks have become another prominent weapon in what Mr Ingram described as Russia’s shadow war.
He said such attacks were likely to increase because the West, Nato, Europe, Britain and the United States had not responded robustly enough to Moscow.
Mr Koudelka said the Kremlin was pursuing an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, seeking to exploit divisions in European societies and weaken support for Ukraine.
“They believe if they escalate enough, then European countries will decide not to support Ukraine,” he said.
Sweden’s military intelligence chief, Thomas Nilsson, said he had seen no evidence that Moscow was seriously considering peace negotiations with Kyiv.
“My assessment is that they are still thinking that they could achieve their strategic objectives, so they are just playing negotiation theatre,” he said.
The three security chiefs agreed that Russia’s covert campaign was likely to intensify. Mr Nilsson warned that an armed drone sent into a busy European airport, or an attack causing deaths or major damage to critical infrastructure, would be a “gamechanger”.
Mr Mežviets said Russia appeared to be moving from random acts of sabotage and arson intended to cause panic towards attacks on specific sites and organisations connected with Western support for Ukraine.
Mr Koudelka said the uncertainty created by the suspected campaign was itself placing pressure on intelligence agencies, as every fire or malfunction had to be investigated as a potential terror attack.
The warnings came as Russia’s ruling United Russia party secured a projected landslide in the country’s first wartime parliamentary elections, a vote widely regarded as a sham.
Early counting put United Russia on about 58 per cent, with the Communist Party on 14 per cent. Voting also took place in Russian-held areas of Ukraine, prompting Kyiv to urge foreign governments not to recognise the result.
