Diplomatic efforts to end the eight-month United States-Israel war on Iran have intensified, but Tehran is showing little sign of abandoning demands it regards as essential to a permanent settlement.
China said on Tuesday that it would send an envoy to countries in the region, while senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye met Iranian leaders in Tehran a day earlier. The initiatives reflect growing concern that the conflict could escalate again, disrupting energy markets and spreading further across the region.
Iran is insisting on sanctions relief, the lifting of a US naval blockade on its Gulf ports and guarantees that Washington will not resume attacks. In return, Tehran says it is prepared to help restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States, however, wants Iran to make further concessions before a final peace agreement, including on its nuclear programme. The deadlock has left the waterway at the centre of negotiations and raised the prospect of further disruption to global energy supplies.
Iran’s demands and Washington’s uncertainty
Before the war began on February 28, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments travelled through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s ability to restrict that traffic has given it significant leverage over the international economy.
Negar Mortazavi, editor and host of The Iran Podcast, said Tehran’s objective was not simply to secure another temporary halt in fighting.
“Iran’s priority is not simply to secure another ceasefire, but to end the war permanently and establish deterrence so that the cycle of military attacks by the US and Israel does not keep repeating itself,” she said.
Iran’s position has been shaped by its distrust of Washington, which has launched strikes on the country three times since June 2025 while talks were under way. Tehran also believes sustained economic pressure could eventually force the United States to offer more favourable terms.
The latest breakdown in diplomacy has reinforced those concerns. Pakistan and Qatar helped broker a memorandum of understanding in June aimed at reopening the strait, ending the blockade of Iranian ports and establishing conditions for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme.
That arrangement quickly collapsed as both sides resumed attacks. The United States carried out sustained strikes against Iran for several weeks in July, followed by Iranian attacks on US military assets and energy infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries and Jordan.
Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, said the failure had hardened Tehran’s position.
“Iran believes previous negotiations and ceasefire arrangements failed to protect it from renewed military attacks, and it is therefore seeking more tangible and durable guarantees,” he said.
Donald Trump has remained publicly unclear about his next move. Asked by reporters on Sunday whether he would reach an agreement with Iran or “finish them off”, the US president gave no indication of a settled course.
He had previously said that attacks on Iran would not take place until after the US midterm elections on November 3.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said last week that the country’s armed forces were prepared to respond to any fresh attack. He warned that Iran could invade neighbouring states and strike bases used in US military operations as part of a new “offensive” strategy.
Rezaei said Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin peace talks only after Washington took concrete steps to rebuild trust. Those conditions include suspending sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, lifting the naval blockade and providing assurances against renewed strikes.
US midterms and Israel election add pressure
The diplomatic calculations are also being influenced by elections in the United States and Israel. The US midterms will determine control of Congress for the final two years of Mr Trump’s presidency, with all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats contested.
The war is already proving politically damaging. A Reuters/Ipsos survey earlier this month found that 34 per cent of Americans approved of Mr Trump’s handling of the conflict, his lowest rating during either of his presidential terms.
Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, with a 53-47 advantage in the Senate, including two independents who vote with Democrats, and a 218-214 margin in the House.
Rising energy costs have added to the political pressure. Diesel prices have nearly doubled, placing a heavy burden on farmers and small businesses, while inflation and affordability remain central issues in the campaign.
Some reports citing Iranian officials have suggested that Tehran may be prolonging negotiations to deny Mr Trump a political victory before the elections. A Republican setback could further limit his freedom of action, particularly if Democrats take control of Congress and increase scrutiny of the administration’s conduct of the war.
“Tehran wants to teach a lesson to Washington, including future American presidents, that attacking Iran comes with a high price,” Ms Mortazavi said.
“Its deterrence strategy is multilayered, aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs that extend well beyond the battlefield.”
Israel’s election on Tuesday has introduced another variable. A defeat for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could make it more difficult to renew joint military action with the United States, with experts describing him as the main force behind Mr Trump’s decision to authorise the war.
An opposition victory led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot could potentially ease regional tensions, although his removal would not necessarily mean a softer Israeli approach towards Iran. Mr Eisenkot has also expressed concern about Iran’s nuclear programme and regional influence.
Ms Mortazavi said Iranian officials were watching the political consequences of the conflict in both countries, while recognising that the period after the elections could bring renewed escalation.
The Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s bargaining chip
The number of attacks on commercial shipping around Hormuz reached its highest level in October, according to data collected by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels.
Brent crude rose above 117 dollars a barrel last week, compared with about 72 dollars before the war, after attacks by Iran on tankers.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said Tehran was using the economic consequences as part of a wider contest of endurance with Washington.
“They know they are in an attritional race with the US to see who breaks first,” he said. “For now, however, they are happy to keep attacking shipping to push prices higher.”
Iran’s military and economic leverage has made the strait a central issue in the efforts led by regional powers to prevent a new escalation. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye have agreed to continue discussions on regional peace and security, amid weeks of attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels.
Pakistan and Turkiye have close strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and have committed to supporting Riyadh militarily under the recently established Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between the three countries.
Political analyst Rami Khouri, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Center in Washington DC, said the immediate objective was to reduce tensions, restore diplomacy and establish a permanent ceasefire before addressing the wider disputes.
“The most immediate goal: to de-escalate and to try to return to the diplomatic process, to have a permanent ceasefire, and then define the issues and address them with much stronger mediation, supported by these three countries [Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye] and maybe others,” he said.
Mr Khouri said the discussions could mark the beginning of a shift away from a regional security system dominated by Washington, towards one in which Middle Eastern and other regional states exercise greater influence.
Toossi said countries in the region were increasingly recognising that their security could not be separated from Iran’s, despite their differences with Tehran.
“It will be difficult to stabilise Yemen while the wider US-Iran confrontation continues, just as it will be difficult to reach a durable settlement with Iran while regional military escalation remains a constant threat,” he said.
For now, the central obstacle remains the absence of trust between Tehran and Washington. Ms Mortazavi said Iran remained willing to negotiate and had already put forward a proposal to end the war, but would not give up its influence over the Strait of Hormuz under military or economic pressure.
“After two wars, Tehran is deeply sceptical of American commitments and wants concrete guarantees that any agreement will not simply become another temporary pause before the next attack,” she said.
“The goal is a permanent end to the war, not another temporary ceasefire that leaves the underlying conflict unresolved.”
