Texas voters remain broadly positive about their state but are increasingly anxious about its long-term prospects, according to a new survey conducted ahead of the November elections.
The Texas 2036 poll found that six in 10 voters believe Texas is a better place than the rest of the United States to raise a family. Yet only 39% think state leaders are taking the right steps to ensure it remains the best place to live, work and raise children over the next 20 years.
Concern crosses party lines, although it is strongest among Democrats. Some 85% of Democratic voters said they were extremely or very concerned about Texas, compared with 58% of Republicans — a 15-point increase in Republican concern from the previous year.
Texas voters remain optimistic about the economy
The poll also revealed a striking contrast between worries about the state’s future and confidence in its economy. Some 56% of voters expect Texas to outperform the rest of the country economically over the next four years, while 59.4% believe there will be good opportunities for people like them to use their skills, earn a living and get ahead.
However, only 52.3% said Texas’s economic growth had benefited them personally. Almost one-third, or 32.9%, said they had not benefited, while 14.8% were unsure.
Texas 2036 said the results showed that statewide economic growth had not been felt equally across the state. Its analysis of federal labour data found that more than half of Texans lived in counties where employment had either declined or remained broadly flat over the previous year.
The survey was conducted by Baselice & Associates between 22 and 26 August among registered voters. It involved 1,369 interviews, with results weighted to an effective sample of 1,001 and a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Unaffiliated and undecided voters could prove significant
With the November election approaching, nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said they were still making decisions about how they would vote. Around 21% described themselves as mostly or fully undecided.
One in six voters, or 16.7%, were both unaffiliated with a political party and undecided. Texas 2036 said 38% of this group expected to support candidates from more than one party, while 24% remained unsure how they would vote.
Only about half of respondents said they intended to vote exclusively for candidates from one party. That compares with 67% of ballots cast in the 40 most populous Texas counties that were straight-ticket votes in 2018, the last election for which comparable data is available.
Among unaffiliated and undecided voters, reducing healthcare costs was the issue most likely to increase support for a candidate, at 83.5%. Lower electricity bills followed at 80.9%, while ensuring pupils could read and do maths at grade level stood at 80.7%.
Education and household costs dominate voters’ priorities
Across the wider electorate, the strongest potential vote-winner was a commitment to ensuring students could read and do maths at grade level, supported by 85% of respondents.
Reducing healthcare prices and preparing pupils for college or a career each attracted 83% support. Lower residential electricity bills were backed by 82%, while building water infrastructure was supported by 81%.
Reducing homeowners’ insurance costs and property taxes also featured prominently, with 79% and 77% of voters respectively saying such policies would make them more likely to support a candidate.
David Leebron, president and chief executive of Texas 2036, said the poll indicated that voters from across the political spectrum shared concerns over education, affordability and the infrastructure needed to support a growing state.
