James Talarico has edged ahead of Ken Paxton by one percentage point in the latest Texas Senate poll, underlining the exceptionally close contest for the seat currently held by Republican John Cornyn. ([static1.squarespace.com](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ab15cb39e4cc420b9ef07f5/1790008500236/TSUSept2026_TXStatewideRaces.pdf?stream=top&utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslocal_houston&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter))
The Texas Southern University/YouGov survey puts the Democratic state representative on 47 per cent, compared with 46 per cent for the Republican state attorney general. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown has 3 per cent, while 4 per cent remain undecided. ([static1.squarespace.com](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ab15cb39e4cc420b9ef07f5/1790008500236/TSUSept2026_TXStatewideRaces.pdf?stream=top&utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslocal_houston&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter))
The poll was conducted between September 15 and 19 among 1,800 likely voters, with a margin of error of 2.31 percentage points. The result therefore does not establish a clear leader, but adds to a series of surveys showing the race is being fought on a knife edge. ([static1.squarespace.com](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ab15cb39e4cc420b9ef07f5/1790008500236/TSUSept2026_TXStatewideRaces.pdf?stream=top&utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslocal_houston&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter))
Texas Senate race remains tightly contested
An Emerson College/Nexstar poll conducted earlier in September also gave Talarico a one-point advantage, at 47 per cent to Paxton’s 46 per cent. Other recent surveys have shown slightly larger Democratic leads, including 49 per cent to 43 per cent in a Recon MR poll and 46 per cent to 43 per cent in an NBC News/Mason-Dixon poll. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tracker))
The Texas Politics Project cautions that the surveys should not be read as a continuous measure of voter movement. They use different samples, methodologies, question wording and candidate options, with Ted Brown included in some polls but not others. The latest figure is an individual poll result rather than a consensus estimate or forecast. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/texas-2026-u-s-senate-poll-tracker))
The newest survey shows pronounced differences between voter groups. Paxton leads among white voters by 56 per cent to 37 per cent, while Talarico has sizeable advantages among Latino voters, 57 per cent to 38 per cent, and black voters, 87 per cent to 10 per cent. Talarico is also ahead among voters under 35, while Paxton leads among those aged 55 and over. ([static1.squarespace.com](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6ab15cb39e4cc420b9ef07f5/1790008500236/TSUSept2026_TXStatewideRaces.pdf?stream=top&utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslocal_houston&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter))
Texas voters can begin casting ballots early in person on October 19, according to the Texas Secretary of State. Early voting ends on October 30, with the general election taking place on November 3. ([sos.texas.gov](https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/candidates/guide/2026/dates2026.shtml))
