Donald Trump’s endorsement of Bruce Blakeman is more likely to damage than boost the Republican’s campaign for governor of New York, according to a new Siena poll, while Kathy Hochul retains a nine-point lead over her challenger.
The survey of likely voters, released on Wednesday 23 September 2026, found Hochul on 50% and Nassau County executive Blakeman on 41%. Her advantage has changed little since August, when she led by 49% to 39%.
But the poll suggested that the president’s backing may be a liability in the contest. By 51% to 30%, voters said Trump’s endorsement would have a negative impact on Blakeman’s prospects, with 49% of independents and 69% of Democrats taking that view. ([sri.siena.edu](https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/23/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters-hochul-50-blakeman-41/))
Blakeman, who is seeking to become New York’s first Republican governor in more than two decades, nevertheless holds a narrow lead among independent voters, backed by 44% compared with 39% for Hochul.
Hochul’s strongest support remains in New York City, where she leads Blakeman by 61% to 27%. The candidates are closely matched in the downstate suburbs, while Blakeman has a small advantage upstate, according to the poll.
Hochul benefits from Mamdani endorsement
By contrast, half of those surveyed said Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul was helping the Democratic incumbent, against 30% who said it was hurting her campaign.
Mamdani, the mayor of New York City, has a 46% favourable rating among likely voters, with his support particularly strong among Democrats and city residents. Trump’s own rating in the survey was substantially weaker, with 34% viewing him favourably and 63% unfavourably. ([sri.siena.edu](https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/23/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters-hochul-50-blakeman-41/))
Despite the contest being within single digits, 66% of likely voters said they believed Hochul would win, including 37% of Republicans and 61% of independents.
Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said the result reflected both the closeness of the race and the state’s long-standing Democratic advantage. Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one in New York, and the state has not elected a Republican governor for 24 years.
Voters gave Hochul modest advantages on making prices more affordable, keeping New Yorkers safe and addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state. They were more divided when asked which candidate had the qualities needed to be governor.
The poll was conducted between 11 and 17 September among 1,144 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points for its core questions. Election Day is six weeks away. ([sri.siena.edu](https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/23/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters-hochul-50-blakeman-41/))
