The Democrats’ congressional win in the United States could strengthen Ukraine’s position against Russia, but Kyiv faces an uncertain path as Donald Trump prepares to deal with a new Congress and is expected to press for a rapid peace agreement.
Tuesday’s midterm elections gave the Democratic Party control of both houses of Congress, creating a check on the president and raising the prospect of renewed scrutiny of his approach to the war and his ties to Moscow.
For many Ukrainian servicemen, however, the result has done little to alter expectations. Kyrylo, a 37-year-old drone technician recovering in a Kyiv hospital after a Russian glide bomb struck his bunker, said Ukraine had already learnt not to rely on Washington.
“We already learned how not to depend on America,” he said, asking for his surname to be withheld under wartime protocol.
“Trump has let us down so many times, sold us to Russia and we’re still standing and kicking Russian [butt],” he said. “We no longer depend on American money and weaponry. The whole world wants to buy our drones now.”
US financial and military support for Ukraine has fallen sharply under Mr Trump. Aid had reached almost $200 billion between Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 and the end of 2024, but Washington’s assistance slowed considerably from 2025.
Kyiv received $8.2 billion in military aid between October 2025 and March through legacy arrangements dating from Joe Biden’s administration. Those deals are expected to cost a further $13 billion once existing supplies have been delivered.
Europe provided $83 billion in 2025, taking on most of the financial burden. But almost a third of Ukraine’s weaponry still comes from US companies, according to the Kiel Institute.
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank, said Ukraine’s position could improve under a Democratic-controlled Congress, while warning that bipartisan backing remained essential.
“Ukraine’s positions may become stronger,” he said. “But we need to keep bipartisan support.”
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine still had backing from both parties. He said he was grateful to Republicans, while noting that Democrats had clearly expressed support for Ukraine and for continued aid.
Loss of Republican support
The change in Congress will not automatically deliver more assistance. Several Republicans who had supported Ukraine lost their seats, including Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, the co-chairman of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus and one of Kyiv’s strongest supporters.
Other prominent Republican backers included Don Bacon of Nebraska, who opposed Russia, and Mike Lawler of New York, who voted for the Ukraine Support Act.
Democrats have pledged investigations into Mr Trump’s dealings with Russia and alleged corruption involving his family. They have signalled that they will issue subpoenas and seek executive branch records, including material connected with Ukraine, after taking control of Congress on January 3.
Those investigations could also focus on reported links between members of the Trump family and Russian politicians, intelligence figures and oligarchs. One allegation concerns Umar Kremlev, who reportedly paid hundreds of thousands of dollars towards Donald Trump Jr’s wedding celebrations in the Bahamas in May.
Kyiv is also seeking a new ambassador in Washington. Olha Stefanishyna, a former deputy prime minister, was dismissed in August during an investigation into alleged illegal enrichment.
The ambassador plays a key role in relations with Congress and in arranging contacts between US lawmakers and Ukraine. Mr Fesenko said appointing a replacement should be an immediate priority.
Analysts have warned that an impeachment drive against Mr Trump could ultimately harm Ukraine, particularly if the country became central to a third proceeding against him.
“God forbid if Ukraine becomes the focus of a [third] impeachment because of the negative experience during Trump’s first presidency,” Mr Fesenko said. “It made Trump form a stable negative attitude towards Ukraine.”
Mr Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 followed accusations that he pressured Kyiv to investigate Mr Biden and his son Hunter, who had served on the board of Ukrainian gas company Burisma. Democrats said the president had withheld $390 million in military aid to Ukraine as leverage.
Before the new Congress takes office, Mr Trump is expected to push Kyiv towards a fast-tracked peace deal with Russia. Igar Tyshkevych, a Kyiv-based analyst, said the coming two months could be particularly difficult for Ukraine.
“Because when Russia isn’t willing to concede, the fastest way to solve the matter – either through a truce or through freezing the war – is only possible if [Trump] twists Kyiv’s arms,” he said.
Mr Tyshkevych said Mr Trump, who currently has Republican majorities in both chambers, would seek to demonstrate the effectiveness of his policies and limit confrontation with the incoming Democratic-led Congress.
The new Congress will also face competing pressures over allegations that senior Ukrainian officials embezzled US aid. Mr Tyshkevych said lawmakers would have to balance the political case for continuing support with demands for answers over alleged corruption among Ukraine’s leaders.
In Moscow, analysts predicted that Democrats would seek renewed US military aid for Kyiv, tougher sanctions against Russia and a restoration of transatlantic unity over Ukraine. They also said investigations could examine how Mr Trump conducts negotiations with the Kremlin.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry dismissed the significance of the result, saying Moscow’s foreign policy did not depend on political changes in other countries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov nevertheless expressed hope that Mr Trump would continue his “peacemaking efforts”.
