Middle East oil exports rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days to the end of September, despite continuing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, provisional shipping data shows.
Crude shipments reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, according to figures from ship-tracking firm Kpler. Before the US-Israel war on Iran began, regional exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026.
But Ali Fadavi, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, dismissed the current flow through a US-supervised route as “negligible” compared with traffic before the war.
In a televised interview, General Fadavi said only three to four million barrels of oil per day were moving through the route. He also claimed that no US vessels were present in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Sea of Oman or the northern Indian Ocean, and said US warships were “100 percent vulnerable” to IRGC attacks.
Iran has claimed success in attacking ships, including US Navy vessels, near the Strait of Hormuz. It said the strikes had forced Washington to move its warships further from the Iranian coast.
Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz
Kpler’s seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1. The calculation includes cargoes passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, shipments from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
When crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids are combined, the average reached 22.4 million barrels per day in the seven days to September 30.
The number of liquefied natural gas cargoes leaving the Strait of Hormuz also reached its highest monthly level since February in September. The figures do not include vessels that may have crossed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders switched off.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack each day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden from October 2.
Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States accepted Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.
