Prediction markets are taking bets on whether Jensen Huang will remain chief executive of Nvidia after he acknowledged an extramarital affair with a business executive reportedly identified by US intelligence officials as a suspected Chinese spy.
Kalshi and Polymarket began offering contracts on Mr Huang’s future after he disclosed the relationship to Nvidia’s board on Sunday. Early trading has generally indicated that he will stay in the role, although the markets also assign a significant chance to his departure.
A Kalshi contract on when Mr Huang might leave Nvidia has attracted more than $266,000 (£202,000) in trading volume. Traders put the probability of his departure before January 2029 at 54 per cent, compared with 52 per cent before January 2028 and 33 per cent before July 2027.
A separate Kalshi market, with about $2,500 in trading, puts the chance of Mr Huang testifying before Congress by next January at 46 per cent. That rises to 79 per cent by next July.
Polymarket has recorded more than $305,000 in trading on the timing of an announcement of Mr Huang’s resignation or removal as Nvidia chief. Traders put the probability of such an announcement by the end of this year at 16 per cent, rising to 22 per cent by the end of March 2027.
The platform is also hosting bets on Mr Huang’s personal life, with about $159,000 wagered on the probability of a divorce by March 2027. The current odds stand at 23 per cent.
The contracts appeared a day after Nvidia announced an investigation into its chief executive. The company’s shares have fallen by nearly 10 per cent since Monday morning.
Prediction markets turn scandal into forecasts
Prediction platforms allow users to trade contracts linked to possible outcomes in politics, sport and even the weather, with prices intended to reflect expectations about what will happen.
They attracted heightened attention during last week’s midterm elections, when traders favoured Democrats to take control of both chambers of Congress. The platforms had also gained prominence during the 2024 presidential election, when traders favoured Donald Trump despite polling showing a close contest with Kamala Harris.
However, their forecasts have not always been accurate. While prediction markets broadly anticipated Democratic gains in the midterms, they favoured Republicans in the Texas governor’s race and South Carolina’s Senate contest, both of which were ultimately won by Democrats. An earlier upset in Brazil’s presidential election also prompted questions about the platforms’ reliability.
