UAE quits Opec after nearly 60 years in major blow to oil cartel

The United Arab Emirates has announced it is leaving Opec and the wider Opec+ alliance of major oil producing nations after almost six decades, in a move analysts say marks the beginning of the end for the cartel.
The Gulf state, which joined the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in 1967, said the decision reflected its “long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”. Its departure will leave Opec with 11 members.
The UAE’s energy minister said operating outside the group, free of its production obligations, would give the country greater flexibility over its output. The exit is widely regarded as a significant setback for the cartel, which has long relied on coordinated quotas to influence global oil prices.
According to the latest figures from Opec, the UAE pumps 2.9 million barrels of oil a year, compared with nine million from Saudi Arabia, the bloc’s de facto leader.
Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, described the move as “the beginning of the end of Opec”. He said: “With the UAE leaving, Opec loses about 15% of its capacity and one of its most compliant members.”
Mr Kavonic warned that the loss of one of the group’s most reliable participants would place enormous pressure on Riyadh to hold the remaining members in line. “Saudi Arabia will struggle to keep the rest of Opec together, and effectively have to do most of the heavy lifting regarding internal compliance and market management on its own,” he said, adding that other members could be tempted to follow the UAE out of the door.
He went further, suggesting the consequences could extend well beyond the energy sector. The departure, he said, “presents a fundamental geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East and oil markets”.