Premier League predictions from tipster Lewis Jones, known as Jones Knows, include a potential shock at Nottingham Forest, where Manchester City are being opposed in the final fixture before the November international break.
Jones has also identified betting angles in the weekend’s other matches, including disciplinary markets at Leeds, a player-prop selection involving Aston Villa’s Johan Manzambi and a goals-based bet for Friday night’s meeting between Everton and Coventry.
Premier League predictions: Forest backed to defeat Manchester City
Manchester City’s demanding schedule is central to Jones’s case for a Nottingham Forest victory. The match comes after an international break and represents City’s ninth game in a month, with several players having already been involved in four matches in 10 days.
Jones believes the timing could increase the likelihood of an unexpected result. He points to a pattern involving short-priced favourites in the final round of fixtures before the break, with backing every odds-on team in that particular gameweek over the past five seasons producing a loss of 3.4 units.
Forest are also considered overdue some better fortune, with their expected-points figure said to be nine points higher than their actual total. Jones’s prediction is a 2-1 win for the home side, with Nottingham Forest to win priced at 7/2.
Brighton face a similar concern after their victory at Manchester City. Jones notes that the last five teams outside Arsenal and Liverpool to win at the Etihad subsequently failed to win their next Premier League fixture.
Brentford have scored in all nine of their league matches this season and have found the net in 11 consecutive league games when the sequence is extended across the summer break. Jones therefore favours Brentford double chance and both teams to score at 6/4, while predicting a 1-1 draw.
Sunderland are also backed to produce an upset when Chelsea visit the Stadium of Light. The home side have conceded an average of 1.04 goals per game since promotion and have already recorded notable results against leading opposition, including wins over Newcastle and a 2-1 victory against Chelsea on the final day of last season.
Jones predicts another 2-1 Sunderland win, with the hosts priced at 5/2.
Cards and goals among the weekend’s key betting angles
The opening fixture between Everton and Coventry is being approached through the goals market. The last 17 Friday night Premier League matches have averaged 3.76 goals, with 12 producing more than 2.5.
That record leads Jones to favour over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 10/11. His score prediction is 2-2.
Leeds against Tottenham is viewed as a strong candidate for a high card count. Referee John Brooks has averaged 4.75 bookings per game and, since the start of last season, has awarded more penalties and shown more red cards than any other Premier League referee, while only Stuart Attwell has averaged more bookings per 90 minutes.
The last 17 Premier League matches to begin at 12.30pm on a Saturday have averaged 4.8 cards, with six of the last seven exceeding 4.5. Jones predicts Leeds to win 2-1 and selects over 4.5 total cards at 5/6.
At Arsenal, Jones sees value in the disciplinary record of Hull rather than the match result. Hull have averaged three cards per away game across all competitions since Sergej Jakirovic took charge, with their Premier League figure standing at 2.8 per match.
Arsenal are priced at 1/7, but Jones predicts a 2-0 home victory and backs Hull to receive over 2.5 cards at 8/5.
In the meeting between Ipswich and Bournemouth, the focus is on Ipswich defender Dara O’Shea. Bournemouth striker Evanilson has drawn 29 yellow cards during his Premier League career, a rate of one booking every 200 minutes.
Jones expects O’Shea to be tested by Evanilson’s movement and physical presence. He predicts a 2-1 Bournemouth win and selects O’Shea to be booked at 9/2.
Manzambi backed to score or assist for Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s Johan Manzambi is the standout player selection for the visit to Manchester United. He has produced a goal or assist every 81 minutes in the Premier League this season, while the score-or-assist selection has landed in each of the six league matches he has started.
Jones also points to Manzambi’s developing partnership with Nicolas Jackson and his record of a goal involvement every other game for club and country last season.
Manchester United have gone nine Premier League matches without a clean sheet, strengthening the case for Manzambi to make an impact at Old Trafford. Jones predicts a 2-1 Aston Villa victory and recommends Manzambi to score or assist at 13/8.
Crystal Palace’s defensive record provides another route into the goalscorer market. Palace have conceded 21 goals in nine league matches, their highest total at this stage of a top-flight campaign.
Liverpool midfielder Alexis Mac Allister has not scored in the Premier League since February 28 against West Ham, but he has registered 12 attempts in his last four matches and has scored four times in cup competitions this season.
Jones predicts Liverpool to win 2-1 and backs Mac Allister to score at 7/2.
Fulham defender Calvin Bassey is also selected to continue a recent run in the foul market. His three-or-more foul involvements line has landed in each of his last five matches, and Jones is prepared to back the same selection again at 5/6.
Fulham are predicted to beat Newcastle 2-1, with Bassey’s total of three or more foul involvements highlighted as the preferred bet.
Jones’s weekend score predictions also include a 2-2 draw between Everton and Coventry, a 2-1 Leeds win over Tottenham, a 2-0 Arsenal victory against Hull, a 2-1 Bournemouth win at Ipswich and a 1-2 Liverpool victory at Crystal Palace.
