A new study published in Political Research Quarterly finds that Asian American voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election tended to hold particular economic outlooks alongside specific racial and anti-immigrant attitudes, mirroring patterns observed in other racial groups and offering insight into the evolving political landscape of a fast-growing segment of the American electorate.
Asian Americans are the fastest-growing single-race group in the United States. The researchers framed their inquiry around how economic and identity factors interact in voting decisions across three recent cycles, aiming to understand the shifting patterns among Asian Americans from 2016 to 2024.
Using data from the Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey, the team examined responses from a large national sample with minority oversamples collected after each of the last three presidential contests. The total sample included 24,061 eligible voters who reported casting a ballot, of which 5,776 were Asian American across the three elections. The researchers compared these responses with Black, Latino, and White voters to determine whether Asian American voting patterns were unique or reflected broader national trends.
In the 2024 election, about 38 percent of Asian American voters supported Trump, while 57 percent voted for Kamala Harris. Within the Asian American group, support varied by national origin, with Vietnamese and Filipino Americans backing Trump at the highest rates and Japanese Americans the least. Overall, these baseline levels were comparable to the Latino electorate in 2024, where roughly 38 percent supported Trump, whereas Black voters leaned away with about 18 percent supporting the Republican candidate and White voters forming the only group with a majority backing Trump.
Economic outlook emerged as a strong predictor of vote choice in 2024. Respondents were asked about optimism or pessimism regarding future family income and job prospects, and those expressing optimism were more likely to vote for Trump among Asian Americans. This same economic trend appeared among Black, Latino, and White voters as well, indicating a cross-group link between personal financial expectations and the choice of candidate.
Racial solidarity also shaped voting behaviour. The survey measured linked fate—the extent to which individuals feel their life chances depend on their racial group—and found that stronger linked fate correlated with a lower likelihood of supporting Trump among Asian Americans. The effect was especially evident in 2020, a year marked by spikes in anti-Asian hate during the COVID-19 pandemic, and it persisted into 2024. A similar pattern was observed among Black voters, though linked fate did not have a statistically significant relationship with Trump opposition among Latino and White voters in 2024.
Out-group racial attitudes, captured through standard measures of racial resentment, predicted Trump support as well. Higher levels of racial resentment were associated with a greater probability of voting for Trump among Asian Americans, and this pattern extended to all non-Black groups in 2024. The study notes that the relationship remained consistent across 2016, 2020, and 2024 for Asian American, Latino, and White voters alike.
Views on immigration provided another strong predictor. Respondents who believed immigrants weakened the country were more likely to vote for Trump, with the effect particularly pronounced among Asian Americans, a group with substantial immigrant origins. The authors suggest that assimilationist beliefs or a belief in strict meritocracy could underpin these attitudes, aligning with anti-immigrant sentiment observed among Latino, Black, and White voters as well.
Researchers acknowledge the study’s limitations, emphasising that the observational data can only show associations rather than causation. They also point out that survey questions measuring economic attitudes changed over time: 2016 and 2020 asked about government‑priority issues, while 2024 used a measure of personal economic optimism. This makes it difficult to quantify changes in economic influence across election years with precision.
Turnout effects are another factor the authors flag. The data suggest Asian Americans who turned out in 2024 favoured Trump more than those who abstained, prompting questions about how much of the shifting landscape is driven by turnout versus genuine shifts in partisan loyalties. The authors call for further research to determine whether these patterns hold if Donald Trump is not on the ballot in future elections.
The study, “How Election Fundamentals and Racialized Considerations Shape Asian American Vote Choice Through the Trump Era,” was authored by Joyce H. Nguy, Nathan K. Chan, and Jessica HyunJeong Lee. It highlights enduring links between economic outlooks, racial attitudes, immigration views, and voting among Asian Americans across the Trump era.
