US consumer price growth is expected to have accelerated to 0.3% month on month in August, according to an estimate from Truflation, adding to uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.
The forecast would mark a rise from the 0.1% increase recorded in July. The official consumer price index for August is due to be published by the US Labor Department on Friday, September 11, at 8.30am Eastern Time.
Truflation expects core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, to have risen by 0.2% during the month, matching July’s increase. On an annual basis, headline inflation would remain at 3.4%, while core inflation would ease slightly to 2.4%.
Higher petrol prices are expected to provide the main upward pressure on the headline figure. Truflation estimates that petrol prices rose by 3.4% in August, during a period of heavy summer travel, while fuel prices remained above $4 a gallon and moved beyond $4.10 in early September.
The independent inflation tracker said tight petrol inventories could leave prices vulnerable to further disruption, unless crude oil costs fall or domestic supplies recover.
Price reductions on clothing, driven by back-to-school promotions and end-of-summer sales, are expected to have moderated the overall rise. Truflation warned, however, that the effect of discounting may prove temporary as tariffs and higher import costs continue to feed through to goods prices.
It said the next stage of the inflation outlook could be marked by a widening gap between goods and services, with tariffs and producer costs influencing merchandise prices while wages, productivity and labour-market conditions determine the persistence of services inflation.
The figures will be closely watched before the Federal Open Market Committee meets on September 15 and 16. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said July’s consumer price index rose 0.1% month on month, with prices excluding food and energy increasing by 0.2%. ([bls.gov](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm?utm_source=openai))
Oliver Rust, Truflation’s head of data, said markets were pricing in a possible quarter-point rate increase, but policymakers could still leave borrowing costs unchanged if the recent rise in inflation was judged to be largely driven by oil prices and therefore temporary.
