Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates could struggle to deliver almost $4 trillion in economic commitments to the United States as the conflict between Washington and Iran puts pressure on their finances, a new analysis has warned.
The report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics said the Gulf states were being forced to reassess spending on defence, energy infrastructure and trade as a result of the conflict.
It said the war had hit the three economies significantly harder than the global economy. The International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for worldwide growth in 2026 by 0.3 percentage points, but made much sharper cuts to its projections for the Gulf states.
Qatar’s growth forecast was cut by 14.7 percentage points to 8.6 per cent. Saudi Arabia’s was reduced from 4.5 per cent to 1.7 per cent, while the UAE’s fell from 5.6 per cent to 1.7 per cent.
The 15-page analysis said the countries had sufficient financial assets and borrowing capacity to avoid an immediate funding crisis. However, it warned that mounting economic pressure could encourage them to favour domestic projects over investments in the US.
“The conflict has weakened their fiscal positions and economic prospects and may have lasting effects on their growth models. It has also weakened their confidence in the US security umbrella in the Gulf,” the report said.
Pressure on Gulf investment commitments
Saudi Arabia had already started shifting towards investment at home before the conflict, according to the analysis. The share of its Public Investment Fund’s portfolio allocated to international investments has fallen from 30 per cent in 2020 to 20 per cent over the past six years.
The report said delays in meeting the commitments could trigger further pressure from the White House, which has previously used tariffs to push other countries to honour investment agreements.
It cited Donald Trump’s threat in January 2026 to increase tariffs on South Korean goods, after delays by South Korea’s legislature in enacting its US investment agreement. The analysis said frustration over the delay also appeared to be connected to the subsequent scaling back of joint US-South Korean military exercises.
South Korea has nevertheless made progress towards its commitments. The South Korean government is close to a potential energy investment agreement worth more than $100 billion, which would support the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure in the US.
Qatar continues to pursue investment in the American energy sector. QatarEnergy began producing liquefied natural gas at a facility in Texas in March and started exports the following month.
The company is also negotiating contracts with several US liquefied natural gas producers through 2031 to replace capacity lost after Iranian attacks damaged Qatar’s LNG facilities, the report said.
Political concerns in the United States
The analysis said it could be difficult to establish whether the Gulf states were fulfilling their pledges because the agreements lacked clear definitions, deadlines and methods of measurement.
It also pointed to scrutiny from members of Congress over the economic and national security effects of Gulf investments, as well as questions about governance and possible conflicts of interest.
One case highlighted was a $2 billion investment in Binance by a UAE-backed investment firm. The transaction used a stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency company linked to the Trump family, prompting senators Elizabeth Warren and Jeff Merkley to seek records in June 2025.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao was pardoned by Mr Trump in October 2025 after pleading guilty in 2023 to violating US anti-money-laundering laws.
Lawmakers have also questioned the involvement of sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in financing major US corporate deals, including Paramount Skydance’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.
“The question now is whether, and in what form, the three countries will implement their commitments,” the report said.
