Israel faces a potentially prolonged period of political uncertainty after early election projections weakened Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power and gave Arab Israeli parties an unprecedented presence in the Knesset.
With nearly 86% of votes counted, the three main broadcasters projected that Mr Netanyahu’s conservative, religious and ultranationalist bloc would take 53 of the 120 seats. An opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot was forecast to win 48.
Parties representing Arab Israelis were projected to secure 19 seats, leaving Mr Eisenkot with little realistic route to power without broad support from them. Many Jewish political leaders oppose such an arrangement.
Final results could be announced as early as Thursday evening, although no clear winner is expected. The projections may still change as votes continue to be counted, while Mr Eisenkot’s anti-Netanyahu bloc has fallen short of pre-election polling that suggested a close contest.
The prospect of Jewish and Arab parties working together to remove Mr Netanyahu has reopened a sensitive debate over Israel’s political identity. Arab Israelis make up about 20% of the country’s population, while questions involving Palestinians and their descendants remain deeply contentious.
Mr Netanyahu warned on Wednesday against what he called a “dangerous government” that could include Arab parties. His Likud party has also alleged that the election was “stolen” by Arab parties and called for an investigation, but provided no specific evidence.
The elections committee said reports of irregularities were much lower than in previous elections. Around half a million absentee ballots, including those cast by military personnel and diplomats, are due to be counted by Thursday evening and are not expected to significantly alter the projected result.
Mr Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister during coalition negotiations and could continue in the role until another election next year. A caretaker government has formally the same powers as a regular government, according to Guy Lurie, a research fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, but also has “a duty of restraint” and less discretion in some areas.
It would retain powers including over the war with Iran, Mr Lurie said. Turnout was nearly 78%, the highest since 1999.
