China’s old-age dependency ratio has overtaken its child dependency ratio for the first time, highlighting the mounting demographic pressure facing the world’s second-largest economy.
The proportion of people aged 65 and over compared with the working-age population reached 23.1% last year, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The child dependency ratio, measuring those aged 14 and under, stood at 22%.
More than 223 million people in China are now aged 65 or above, compared with about 213 million children aged 14 and under.
Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor of social science and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said an ageing population would place greater demands on pensions, healthcare and long-term care.
China’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, declining by 3.4 million to 1.405 billion. The birth rate also dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, its lowest level since the People’s Republic of China was founded in 1949.
China’s shrinking workforce
The demographic shift is raising concerns about the ability of a smaller workforce to support pensions and care for a growing elderly population. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned in 2019 that the state pension fund could run out of money by 2035.
“What matters most for China’s economy is not the ratio itself but how many people work, how productive they are, and how long they stay healthy,” Professor Gietel-Basten said.
China’s birth rate has declined over decades amid rapid urbanisation and the one-child policy, which was enforced from 1980 to 2015. The policy was later relaxed: families were allowed to have two children from 2016 and up to three from 2021, while penalties were removed.
Many couples have nevertheless chosen not to have children, citing the cost of housing, education and childcare. The government announced last year that parents would receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan for each child under three.
China is also gradually raising the retirement age to 63 for men, 58 for women in white-collar jobs and 55 for women in blue-collar jobs.
The ageing population is creating demand for a growing “silver economy” of goods and services aimed at older consumers. Beijing expects the sector to reach 30 trillion yuan by 2035.
Xiujian Peng, a senior research fellow at Victoria University’s Center of Policy Studies, said greater investment in education and training, alongside technologies such as artificial intelligence and automation, would become increasingly important as the workforce shrinks.
