Democrats have been given a strong chance of taking control of both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, with prediction markets pointing to major gains against President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.
Kalshi puts the Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate at 69 per cent and their prospects of capturing the House at 92 per cent. The figures come as Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers.
Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, compared with 47 for Democrats. The Senate contest is expected to turn on a small number of closely fought races, with some shifting towards Democrats while others have moved in the Republicans’ direction.
Democrats’ prospects in the 2026 midterms
Allan Lichtman, a historian at American University in Washington, has predicted that Democrats will sweep the House and Senate. He said President Trump’s approval ratings, national polling, voter enthusiasm and early voting patterns were all pointing towards a difficult result for Republicans.
Lichtman said Democrats were leading by between seven and 11 points on the generic congressional ballot, which he considers a more reliable indicator than polling individual races.
“When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,” he said. “It’s not a prediction; that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.”
Trump is continuing to campaign for Republican candidates before Election Day. He is due to travel to Daytona Beach, Florida, to rally support for Byron Donalds, the Republican candidate seeking to succeed Governor Ron DeSantis.
Two planned Republican rallies in Kansas City and Iowa have been cancelled, with Trump instead expected to take part in at least 20 virtual rallies in the run-up to the vote. The Republican National Committee said the in-person events were dropped because Republicans were in a strong position in both states.
