The Government’s proposed conversion therapy ban could cost businesses and taxpayers up to £100 million over the next decade, according to its own impact assessment.
The assessment says the legislation, which would outlaw abusive attempts to change a person’s sexuality or gender identity, is likely to have a “negative” effect on private companies and public bodies required to train staff and familiarise themselves with the new rules.
Costs for the police, courts and prison system have not yet been fully calculated, meaning the eventual bill could rise further.
Ministers nevertheless estimate that the ban could deliver a £783 million benefit to society over 10 years by reducing depression among gay and transgender people who have experienced conversion practices.
The assessment acknowledges that the evidence surrounding conversion practices is “relatively limited” and that incidents are not recorded in official statistics. It says estimates of their prevalence rely heavily on self-selected samples.
A survey commissioned by Stonewall was used by the Cabinet Office to estimate that between 75,000 and 93,000 people in England and Wales experience conversion practices each year.
The survey asked respondents whether they had been told to take “purifying” substances or had received “pseudo-scientific” counselling. The assessment estimates that up to one in three people affected develop depression as a result.
It says improving their quality of life would create a “monetised benefit”, while reductions in depression could also produce economic benefits through lower levels of sick leave.
However, the report forecasts one-off familiarisation costs of £13.6 million for the private sector, including private education and healthcare providers. Smaller costs are expected for religious groups and LGBT+ voluntary organisations.
Training across the police, Crown Prosecution Service, courts, NHS, education and social services is predicted to cost taxpayers £45.8 million. A Victim Support Service is expected to cost a further £240,000 over three years.
The assessment also says costs will arise within the Prison and Probation Service and criminal legal aid, although the wider impact on the justice system is still being assessed with the Ministry of Justice.
A ten-year estimate puts the total cost to business and the public sector at £59.7 million in the best-case calculation, rising to £103.3 million under the higher estimate.
Maya Forstater, chief executive of women’s rights charity Sex Matters, questioned both the projected benefits and the costs.
“The idea that the conversion practices bill could contribute nearly £800m to the economy is pure fantasy based on shaky evidence, while the cost of the bill has been grossly underestimated,” she said.
“The largest costs such as the cost of police and court time, social workers and children being taken into care and the impact on families have not been counted.”
Joy Morrissey, the shadow equalities minister, said it would be wrong to impose more than £100 million in additional costs on businesses while they were already facing pressure from Labour’s economic policies.
Critics of the legislation have also raised concerns that parents could face prosecution for trying to persuade their children not to transition.
