The Anthropic IPO is emerging as a potential test of whether investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence can withstand growing doubts over valuations, financing and the cost of building the technology.
For several years, AI has dominated public and private markets. Around two-thirds of the S&P 500’s returns since 2024 have come from 42 AI-related stocks, while almost all venture capital this year has flowed into the sector, with some firms approaching trillion-dollar valuations.
But investors at Alpha Partners’ AlphaMarket 2026 conference raised concerns that the consensus may be beginning to fracture. The questions centre on whether companies can fund the infrastructure required, how quickly customers will adopt the technology and when the substantial investment will produce returns.
The AI expansion is being supported by borrowed money and complex, circular financing arrangements, adding uncertainty to an already costly buildout that could take decades to repay. Volatile revenue forecasts and reports of rogue AI systems have also heightened concern.
CoreWeave, one company involved in the infrastructure race, has accumulated $52 billion in liabilities, prompting questions over whether it has a sufficiently clear route to repay them. One fund manager summed up the uncertainty by saying: “The costs of AI will come down and adoption will go up. We just don’t know when.”
Anthropic IPO could set the tone for AI investment
Anthropic has taken steps intended to strengthen its public image ahead of a potential listing. It has established a public benefit fund covering 5% of its shares and appointed a Harvard astrophysicist to the trust that controls its board.
Chief executive Dario Amodei will need to persuade investors that Anthropic represents a sound investment, while also addressing wider public unease about the company and its leadership. A weak market debut could affect not only Anthropic and its financial backers, but also other AI businesses seeking to raise capital.
The pressures are particularly significant in private markets, where investments are less liquid and returns usually depend on a sale, a stock-market listing or a further funding round. Exits are taking longer, while venture rounds have extended as far as Series G and the number of unsold private-equity-backed companies has more than doubled over the past decade, reaching 33,575 as of June 30.
Private-market investors can also be reluctant to trade when valuations come under pressure. Kelly Rodrigues, chief executive of Forge Global, said sellers did not want to reduce the stated value of their holdings while buyers waited for discounts.
Consumer sentiment adds another uncertainty. Although American consumers continue to spend and account for about 70% of the country’s gross domestic product, many are facing pressure from energy costs, stagnant wages, higher interest rates and the rising cost of essentials including healthcare and housing.
Many Americans do not want more data centres and believe AI is developing too quickly. Concerns about job security, trust in technology leaders and fairness could further influence the political and commercial environment as the country approaches its midterm elections.
