The Republican midterm battlefield has widened sharply, with President Trump’s political operation putting money into Senate races and House districts once considered safely conservative.
Less than seven weeks before polling day, Republican strategists are privately questioning whether the party can still hold Georgia, while new spending and high-profile campaigning have appeared in states including Kansas and Nebraska.
The shift reflects growing concern over Mr Trump’s standing and voter anger about high prices linked to tariffs and the war with Iran. Economic pressures are also worsening, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and petrol and diesel prices remaining high.
“Gas prices are too high right now, diesel prices are too high,” Speaker Mike Johnson said at the Capitol. “There is a very simple reason for it. It is tied to the Strait of Hormuz.”
A national poll released this week found Democrats with an advantage of nearly nine percentage points over Republicans on the congressional ballot, a margin comparable to the 2018 election, when Democrats made major gains.
Republicans retain a substantial financial advantage, however, and have used it to book more than $140 million in advertising since Labor Day through aligned super PACs. Richard Hudson, who leads the House Republicans’ campaign arm, said the party was now “turning everything on”.
Georgia emerges as a test of Republican confidence
Georgia has become the clearest example of the changing map. Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is seeking re-election against Republican nominee Mike Collins, who has trailed in polling.
Republicans must win at least four seats to take control of the Senate, including two in states carried by Mr Trump by double-digit margins, while holding every seat they already have. Yet Georgia was the only one of the nine leading Senate battlegrounds where Republicans had not reserved more advertising money than Democrats as of Wednesday.
Some Republican figures have begun discussing whether resources should be moved away from Georgia. At a donor meeting in Dallas, a presentation listing four Republican Senate recruits did not include Mr Collins, although he was in attendance.
Mr Collins’s spokesman, Meyer Siegfried, rejected suggestions that the campaign was being abandoned, saying Republicans had provided “continued investment”. A Trump-linked super PAC has so far earmarked $2.2 million for Georgia, compared with $29 million combined for Michigan and New Hampshire.
Democrats are defending Senate seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, where the contests appear closer than party leaders had hoped. Republicans have also stepped up efforts in Kansas, where Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Senator Roger Marshall despite the state not electing a Democrat to the chamber since 1932.
Mr Marshall has begun running attacks against his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton, while a Republican-aligned super PAC has launched advertisements supporting him. Mr Hamilton said the vice-president’s visit showed Republicans recognised that the race was competitive.
In Nebraska, a newly formed super PAC called Cornhusker Majority reserved $3.7 million in advertising and immediately began attacking independent candidate Dan Osborn, who is backed by Democrats.
Democrats target traditionally safe Republican districts
The Democratic offensive extends beyond the Senate. The party’s campaign arm says it is contesting 58 Republican-held House seats, including districts Mr Trump won by as much as 20 points.
In Kentucky, a Trump-linked super PAC has bought $637,000 of advertising in the Sixth District, which the president carried by 15 points in 2024. Democratic candidate Zach Dembo said tariffs were hurting farmers and the bourbon industry, arguing that Republicans recognised “the ground is shifting”.
The district also backed Democratic Governor Andy Beshear, whose own super PAC is running advertisements there. A Democratic victory would not necessarily decide control of Congress, but could help the party build a larger majority in 2027.
In Colorado, Navy veteran Eileen Laubacher is mounting a competitive challenge to Representative Lauren Boebert in a rural district Mr Trump won by 18 points. Ms Laubacher said voters were angry about rising fuel and supply costs.
Some Republican candidates appear to be seeking distance from the president. Iowa Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks voted with Democrats to call for an end to the war with Iran, while Ashley Hinson has highlighted in a new advertisement that she has worked with Democrats.
Mr Vance is due to address an Iowa Republican rally, but Ms Hinson has said she will not attend.
Democratic leaders say the party is within reach of taking both chambers, although the contests remain fluid. Hakeem Jeffries, the House minority leader, said Republicans were “on the brink of losing the House, with the Senate not far behind”.
Republicans insist their advertising advantage can still change the race. Mr Hudson said many voters who supported Mr Trump were not aware of what the Republican-led Congress had achieved, adding: “A lot of voters don’t know the policies we passed.”
