Democrat James Talarico has taken a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to a new Fox News poll, with the contest effectively tied within the survey’s margin of error.
Among likely voters, 51% said they would back Mr Talarico and 49% supported Mr Paxton. The poll’s margin of error was three percentage points.
Texas Senate race remains finely balanced
Mr Talarico also held a stronger personal rating than his Republican opponent. The Democratic nominee was viewed favourably by 52% of voters and unfavourably by 44%, giving him a net rating of plus eight.
Mr Paxton’s rating stood at 40% favourable and 58% unfavourable, leaving him with a net rating of minus 18.
Party loyalty remained strong. All likely voters who identified as Democratic Socialists backed Mr Talarico, as did 98% of other Democrats. Among Republican voters, 96% of those identifying as supporters of the Make America Great Again movement chose Mr Paxton, compared with 78% of non-Maga Republicans.
About one in five voters who supported Senator John Cornyn during the Republican primary and subsequent run-off said they now intended to vote for Mr Talarico.
Mr Talarico’s strongest support came from Black voters, 79% of whom backed him, followed by moderates at 65%, Hispanic voters at 64% and voters aged under 35 at 62%.
Mr Paxton led among white evangelical Christians, with 74% support, as well as white men without a university degree, rural voters and those aged 65 and over.
Cost of living dominates voters’ concerns
The economy appeared to be a major dividing line in the race. Thirty-five per cent of likely voters said they were falling behind financially, more than twice the 16% who said they were getting ahead. Almost half, 48%, said they were holding steady.
Those who felt they were falling behind favoured Mr Talarico by 32 points, while voters who said they were getting ahead supported Mr Paxton by 48 points. Those who described their finances as steady gave Mr Paxton a three-point advantage.
The cost of living was described as extremely important by 68% of likely voters when deciding how to vote. Donald Trump and immigration were also central issues, with 48% saying the president was extremely important to their decision and 47% saying the same about immigration.
Data centres, an increasingly prominent issue in Texas politics, were rated extremely important by 34% of those polled and very important by a further 34%.
Voters also expressed concerns about both candidates’ political positions. Fifty-three per cent were worried that Mr Talarico was too liberal, while 51% were concerned that Mr Paxton was too closely aligned with Mr Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 24 to 28, 2026, by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. It surveyed 881 likely voters and formed part of a wider sample of 1,203 registered voters in Texas.
