The Texas Senate race between Republican attorney general Ken Paxton and Democratic state representative James Talarico remains too close to call, with a series of polls showing conflicting results as early voting continues.
Talarico holds a two-point advantage in the latest Emerson College survey, leading Paxton by 48% to 46% among 1,000 likely voters questioned between October 17 and 19. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown was on 1%, while 5% were undecided. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/news/talarico-paxton-texas-senate-race-emerson-poll))
But a Fox News poll conducted over a similar period put the candidates level on 49% apiece, with 1% of respondents unsure. That survey questioned 1,398 likely voters and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/news/paxton-talarico-tied-texas-senate-race-fox-news-poll))
Another poll, conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, gave Talarico a four-point lead, at 51% to Paxton’s 47%, with Brown on 2%. The survey of 969 likely voters was carried out between October 15 and 18 and had a margin of error of 3.9 points. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/news/talarico-leads-paxton-new-poll-early-voting-continues-texas))
Texas Senate race remains finely balanced
The University of Texas and Texas Politics Project’s latest poll also showed Talarico ahead, by 50% to 47%, with Brown on 1% and 2% backing another candidate. Researchers said the three-point difference was within the poll’s margin of error. ([texaspolitics.utexas.edu](https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/latest-ut-texas-politics-poll-finds-historic-levels-of-competition-in-texas-midterm-elections?utm_source=openai))
The differing findings underline the difficulty of drawing a firm conclusion from individual surveys. Polls use different samples, question wording and candidate choices, while some include Brown and others measure only the two leading candidates. Results from separate surveys should not be treated as a continuous movement in support.
The economy has emerged as the leading concern for voters in the Emerson poll, cited by 39% of respondents. Immigration, threats to democracy, education and healthcare followed, while voters were narrowly more likely to say Paxton would handle economic issues better than Talarico. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/news/talarico-paxton-texas-senate-race-emerson-poll))
Polling has nevertheless shown Talarico performing strongly among independent voters and younger Texans, while Paxton has held advantages among older voters, white voters and those without a university degree. The balance in those groups could prove decisive in a contest where the headline margins remain within, or close to, the surveys’ margins of error. ([fox7austin.com](https://www.fox7austin.com/news/talarico-leads-paxton-new-poll-early-voting-continues-texas))
The winner will take the seat currently held by Republican senator John Cornyn. Early voting in Texas began on October 19 and ends on Friday, October 30, with polling stations due to open from 7am on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. ([fox2detroit.com](https://www.fox2detroit.com/election/texas-senate-race-polls-paxton-talarico))
