A Norwegian longitudinal study finds that adolescent mental health trajectories predict adult political views nearly three decades later. The researchers tracked 2,215 individuals from their mid-teens to their early forties and asked about political attitudes in midlife.
The team, led by Sam Fluit of the University of Oslo, explored how persistent psychological challenges in youth relate to later political profiles. They focused on two broad categories of mental health conditions that commonly begin in adolescence.
The first category, internalizing problems, refers to inward-facing symptoms such as depression, general anxiety, and a sense of hopelessness about the future.
The second category, externalizing problems, describes outward-facing behaviours like vandalism, skipping school, or physical fights in adolescence, which can translate into issues such as substance abuse or aggression in adulthood.
The study analysed data from 2,215 Norwegians who were followed across five time points over 28 years. The research began in the early 1990s when participants were around 15, and concluded in 2020 when they were in their early forties. At each stage, individuals reported the frequency and severity of their mental health symptoms.
In midlife, participants answered questions on twelve political preferences, covering voting history, trust in government and in other people, and general interest in politics. They also reported their positions on ideology, social equality, perceptions of immigrants, and support for conservative policies including stricter criminal penalties.
The researchers grouped participants by trajectories of their mental health symptoms. For internalizing problems, three life paths emerged: most people maintained a low, stable level of symptoms; a second group started with elevated symptoms in adolescence that decreased over time; a third, smaller group experienced elevated symptoms that increased with age.
For externalizing problems, two paths were identified. The vast majority showed elevated outward-facing behaviours in youth that declined over time, while a smaller group had persistently elevated externalizing problems from adolescence into adulthood.
The study then linked these mental health paths to adult political outcomes. Elevated levels in either internalizing or externalizing problems were associated with lower voter turnout in midlife. Among internalizing groups, those whose adolescent symptoms later decreased were less likely to have voted in the last national election than those with low, stable symptoms. Among externalizing groups, those with persistently elevated problems were less likely to have voted than those whose problems declined.
Both mental health categories were also linked to lower political and social trust in midlife. Participants in the elevated internalizing groups and the stable externalizing group reported less faith in political institutions and were less likely to believe that other people could be trusted.
When examining specific political leanings, the two mental health profiles diverged. Elevated internalizing problems in adolescence tended to be associated with a more left-wing political profile by midlife, regardless of whether symptoms later rose or fell. Those whose internalizing symptoms decreased over time were especially likely to vote for far-left parties.
The researchers propose that individuals dealing with depression and anxiety might be drawn to egalitarian political platforms, with left-leaning ideologies often emphasising social inclusion and community support.
Conversely, individuals with persistently high externalizing problems displayed a more right-wing orientation. They were more likely to oppose social equality, supported conservative policies, and reported higher perceived threat from immigrants. Those in the stable externalizing group were about twice as likely to vote for populist-right parties and about half as likely to vote for centre-left parties, compared with their peers.
The authors caution that the study’s observational design cannot establish causation. The relationship between mental health and political views may operate in both directions, with political beliefs and emotional well-being influencing one another over time.
The researchers could only assess political attitudes at the final survey in midlife, limiting their ability to track shifts in views alongside evolving mental health. They also had to adapt externalizing assessments as participants aged, since adolescent and adult behaviours differ.
The data come from a single country with a robust welfare state and a multi-party system. The social safety net in Norway may influence how chronic health problems interact with political attitudes, and different patterns might appear in nations with fewer protections or a two-party system.
The study suggests avenues for future work, including examining other populations and tracking political attitudes from earlier ages. It also calls for measuring mechanisms such as educational attainment or economic hardship to help explain how early psychological experiences translate into adult voting behavior.
The study, “The mental health–politics nexus: How mental health trajectories from adolescence to midlife shape political attitudes and voting patterns,” was authored by Sam Fluit, Kinga Bierwiaczonek, Jonas R. Kunst, and Tilmann von Soest.
