Donald Trump has alternated between threats of further US strikes on Iran and claims that negotiations are making progress, leaving Washington facing a difficult decision over whether to resume major military operations or pursue a diplomatic settlement.
The uncertainty follows a damaging Republican defeat in the US midterm elections, which Mr Trump acknowledged was partly linked to the unpopularity of the war. On Thursday, he said the United States might have to “destroy” the rest of Iran and that people would “know soon enough” whether he intended to act.
US forces carried out what the president described as “minor strikes” against Iranian air-defence systems on Friday. Iranian state media also reported that two missiles hit the Suza area of Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz.
Yet Mr Trump said on the same day that American officials were speaking to Iranian representatives. “We’ve made a lot of progress with Iran,” he told reporters, adding: “We’re dealing with them now. They want to make a deal.”
US strikes on Qeshm Island
Qeshm is regarded as a major Iranian naval base and is understood to house missile facilities. Washington has said its attacks were aimed at missile-launch systems to prevent Iranian surface-to-air missiles being used against US assets.
Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported that the country’s air-defence forces had intercepted and destroyed a US MQ-9 drone over the island. US Central Command said the situation there was “relatively calm” after reports of explosions.
The claims came as diplomatic efforts continued through Qatar. Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry, rejected reports that US-Iran negotiations had collapsed, warning that such claims benefited “only those seeking to prolong the war”.
Tehran has demanded sanctions be lifted, Iranian assets unfrozen, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports ended and guarantees that attacks will stop before it reopens the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and resumes peace talks.
Concerns over possible strikes on Iranian nuclear sites
Iran appears to be preparing for the possibility that the United States could attack its nuclear facilities again. Iodine tablets have reportedly been distributed to communities near nuclear sites, including residents of Bushehr, home to Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant.
The tablets are used to protect the thyroid from radiation. An Iranian health official was quoted as saying that supplies were being distributed within two to three kilometres of nuclear facilities during the conflict.
Reports in Iran have also claimed that a US attack on the heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain site is being seriously considered. The location is believed to contain an extensive network of tunnels and facilities, although the claim has not been independently established in the material available.
Separately, the US State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme announced a reward of up to 20 million dollars, along with possible relocation, for information about Iran’s nuclear programme, including facilities, equipment and personnel.
Trump caught between military pressure and talks
Mr Trump is under pressure from voters and members of his own Republican Party after the election loss, while having repeatedly said he will not accept Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has sought to deter further attacks by striking US bases and facilities in neighbouring Gulf countries. Hassan Ahmadian, an associate professor at the University of Tehran, said the strategy had narrowed the options available to Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Iran has threatened to widen its response, with a spokesman for the supreme adviser to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force warning that any country or force helping an American attack could become a “legitimate target”. Tehran has previously warned that cables, data centres and artificial-intelligence facilities across the Gulf could also be attacked.
Mr Ahmadian said Mr Trump had no clear idea how a limited strike would end, adding that Iran’s “cognitive warfare” had kept him “in the fog” over the consequences. He said the president wanted an operation that was worthwhile, offered “a respectable way out” and did not trigger an all-out war.
US Central Command is reportedly preparing for major operations to resume in Iran and is awaiting orders from Washington. Tehran, meanwhile, has warned that any renewed American offensive would provoke retaliation on a wider scale.
Behind the military rhetoric, Iran has submitted a new nuclear and peace proposal through Qatari mediators. A senior Iranian official said it would be discussed only after Washington met Tehran’s seven demands, while the United States was reported to be examining the offer.
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani has urged both sides not to wait for a “perfect moment” to reach an agreement. The competing threats and diplomatic signals leave the next move with Mr Trump, who must decide whether to escalate the conflict or seek a negotiated way out.
