Democrats are tempering expectations of a sweeping House majority as fresh internal polling suggests Republicans are narrowing the contest in several battlegrounds, particularly across the Midwest.
Both parties’ data from mid-October indicates a tightening battlemap, with Republican candidates gaining ground in some districts and the party’s heavy spending helping to protect vulnerable seats in Florida. Democrats remain confident of taking control of the House, but senior figures are privately warning that they may fall short of the 235-seat majority achieved after the 2018 elections.
Six people familiar with the polling said several key races were now within the margin of error. Republicans were also reported to be only a few points behind in some contests, including Michigan’s 7th District, where Republican congressman Tom Barrett is facing Democrat William Lawrence.
The shift marks a change from the optimism voiced by Democrats earlier this month. Brooke Butler, political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said then that a majority of between 218 and 240 seats was viable, while Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries had previously predicted that Democrats would win 220 seats.
“I don’t think anyone ever believed we were going to have 2018 numbers,” one House Democrat said. “I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems smart to me. But, optimistic is also a good place to be.”
Two Democratic operatives working on competitive races said they believed the party’s own polling may in some cases be overstating its strength. Even so, Democrats are seeking to keep Republicans spending heavily in districts that would previously have been considered safely Republican.
“Given the mountain of outside, billionaire-backed cash being dropped in competitive House races across the country and the seemingly never-ending schemes by Republicans to try to rig the midterms — we’ve always known that the majority-making races would come down to the wire,” Viet Shelton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said.
“We’re clear-eyed that House Democrats are poised to win the majority, and it will take running flat out until Election Day,” he added.
Midwest contests tighten
Wisconsin’s 3rd District has become one of the most closely watched races. Democrat Rebecca Cooke was shown one percentage point ahead of Republican congressman Derrick Van Orden, at 47 per cent to 46 per cent, in a mid-October poll conducted for the Cooke campaign in a multi-candidate contest.
“Wisconsin is always close and hard-fought — especially in a district Trump won decisively,” a Cooke campaign aide said. “Our working class message is connecting, but we need the resources to make sure it’s heard.”
Republicans still expect to lose Iowa’s 1st District, represented by Mariannette Miller-Meeks, but believe they have a more promising chance of holding Zach Nunn’s 3rd District and winning the open 2nd District. Donald Trump is due to hold a rally in Iowa’s 2nd District on November 1.
“Any Republican in Iowa in a neck and neck race ends up winning on Election Day,” one Republican operative working on House races said.
Republican officials still regard a Democratic takeover as more likely than not, but hope the party can limit the size of the losses. The latest polling has raised confidence that it may avoid the deeper defeats feared in the Midwest earlier in the campaign.
Republicans defend Florida seats
Republicans have poured additional money into a number of Florida seats that had once been regarded as secure, including the Gulf Coast district represented by Anna Paulina Luna. Mr Trump is due to campaign in the state on Friday, while House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is scheduled to support Maria Salazar in South Florida.
Mr Scalise also campaigned on Thursday for Republican Dan Green, who is defending a redrawn seat against Democrat Darren Soto. Senior Republicans believe the spending is beginning to strengthen some of their Florida candidates, although they acknowledge that more work is needed.
The party faces greater difficulties in South Texas, where a leading Republican super PAC has withdrawn spending from Tano Tijerina’s challenge to Democratic congressman Henry Cuellar in order to support other vulnerable candidates. Monica De La Cruz is also defending a district that Republicans had expected to be safe after redistricting.
North Carolina has emerged as another serious problem for Republicans. National groups and Donald Trump’s political operation have stopped spending in the open 11th District, where Democrat Jamie Ager is challenging Republican Jennifer Balkcom.
“Democrats spent months measuring the drapes, and now they’re scrambling to lower expectations before a single race is called,” Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said. “Republicans have been laser-focused since day one and built our operation to win the races that will get us to 218.”
